2022 PGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2022 PGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets Picks

I come into the 2022 PGA Tour Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets Picks with a bit of ambivalence. I am a big fan of this week’s location: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. Nicknamed the “Beast of the Beltway”, it requires extreme accuracy off the tee. But I kind of prefer this event being played at Quail Hollow and other courses in the North Carolina area. It just means we have to adjust our focus.

At least we don’t have to adjust our focus on my running ledger after a positive week last week. Here is how our running ledger stands:

  • Balance Coming Into Last Week:  +18.95 Units
  • Units Wagered on Mexico Open: 1.75 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings):  2.1 Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +19.3 Units

We didn’t wager too much last week, but will definitely be wagering more this week. Unfortunately, we don’t have any recent tournament history at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms to base some decisions upon, but we don’t have to go too far back as the course hosted tournaments back in 2017 and 2018 for example.

You’ll see in this week’s picks, that is the basis for a lot of my decisions. Let’s take a further look at my 2022 PGA Tour Wells Fargo Championship Open Prop Bets.

2022 PGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets Picks

We are going to start with one of the more conservative bets this week and frequent readers won’t be surprised to see that it’s one of my favorite types of bets, a Nationality bet:

Marc Leishman Top Australian (+230 on FD, +150 on DK) – One Unit

Despite him using the inferior spelling of our common name, I really like Leishman this week. I do hate that I mistakingly made this bet on DK first, but that’s my problem. But even on DraftKings I like this bet.  His history here is strong with a T-5 and a T-13 back when the Quicken Loans National was here.

He’s the 14th best player in the field according to OWGR (overall world golf ranking). He’s having a solid 2022, having gained strokes per round in all key stats in 2022. The 38-year-old Leishman is 50th in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards and 24th in bogey avoidance. Leishman is also first in par-3 scoring and that certainly won’t hurt this week.

He does not have a victory this year, but he doesn’t have to win. Leishman just has to beat out the other Australians this week, none of whom have won on tour either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he does get his first win of the season this week.

Denny McCarthy Top 10 Finish (+700 on DK) – Half Unit

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You have to love the local kid angle here, but McCarthy brings a lot more to the table than just being born in Montgomery County, MD. He is a solid 42nd in Driving Accuracy and is one of the better putters on Tour. Given the preponderance of Par 4s on this course, it is also worth mentioning that he is also Top 20 in Par 4 Scoring Average. At least ten of the names in front of him for that stat will not be teeing it up PTC Potomac this week and I think he can sneak his way into the top ten.

Sung Kang First Round Leader (+14000 on DK) – Quarter Unit

I might switch things up and bet Kang as a top say a top 20 or top 40, but I know folks like me to suggest a first-round leader bet, so here that is. But he’s a very quiet under-the-radar play whose course history should be making plenty of noise. He has two Top 5 finishes here including a third-place finish in 2018. He gained 5.2 or more strokes over the field in three of those eight rounds. I guarantee you that if he earns 5.2 strokes over the field in the first round, your heart will be racing as you hold this bet.

And now, time for the return of a round-robin wager.

Round Robin of trips (.1 Units x 10), quads (.25 Units x 5), and 5-legger (.25 Units) of Tournament Trio Winners: Sergio Garcia, Seamus Power, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, and Abraham Ancer (payout of > +126000 on DK) – 2.5 Units

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This is a pretty aggressive bet. But I do like this group of five golfers to make some noise this week and it makes more sense to cluster them than it does to bet each one individually, especially since we are giving our bet a decent floor with the trips bet. Am I confident in all five winning their trio? Not really. Am I confident enough given the value that at least three of them can win their trio? I am. Here’s a little tidbit for each golfer:

In 2018 Ancer finished with a T-4 after ranking T-5 in GIR and second in scrambling. We’ve discussed Leishman already. Rory is the favorite to win outright as he is the defending champion. It was on a different course last year obviously. However, recall that McIlroy won his first major at nearby Congressional and did so by a whopping eight strokes. I don’t see him winning by such a huge margin here, but he is certainly worthy of being the chalk pick this week.

Seamus Power made the cut twice at QLN plus he is currently 38th in accuracy off the tee, fourth in GIR, and 24th in scrambling. Those kind of stats help explain why he has eight Top 15 finishes already this year. The Irishman ranks inside the top-10 in weighted par-four scoring for the track, but he is also first in bogey avoidance and 12th in total driving.

Garcia is having a luke-warm year, but he is 7th in sand save percentage, which will come in very handy this week with the number of bunkers surrounding the greens this week. He too has enjoyed success at this course and I think he will again this week.

So a little more wagered this week with 4.25 units total. Good luck with your bets and let’s get that green!

Check out Tyler’s 2022 PGA DFS: Wells Fargo Championship FanDuel Picks

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