2022 U.S. Open DraftKings Value Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2022 U.S. Open DraftKings Value Picks

It is U.S. Open Week! Yes, it's a major, so that means additional coverage from us here at F6P. My US Open prop bets article was published earlier in the week. And both Tyler's FanDuel picks as well as his Players to Fade article was published earlier today. It also means it is the time for my 2022 U.S. Open DraftKings Value Picks!

We will get to those shortly, but U.S Open Week also means it is Fathers Day Weekend. And this year, like years past, I will not be getting my annual Father's Day wish. No, it's not to win the Milly! Thousands of others have that wish too. Mine is pretty unique, but one I have been wishing for years. It's not even that complicated. My annual Fathers Day Wish is this: To play golf on Mothers Day!

Yet once again, the women in my life put the kibosh on that. Sigh. Maybe next year...

But for now, I'll focus on who is playing this weekend. Like most Major weeks, pricing on DraftKings is fairly soft this week. Less so at the top, but you can definitely get some top-level talent as you dip below the $9K range.  The fact that you can get Sungjae Im (whom I really like this week) at $7600 is ludicrous, and I'd be surprised if he's not at least 20% owned this week. So we'll keep it simple and say that my "value picks" have to be below him and therefore have salaries of $7.5k or less. And I discussed Seamus Power and Keegan Bradley in my Prop Bets article already, so we'll start even below that.

As usual, we'll go in descending order of salary but start with a guy I root for both week in and week out.

2022 U.S. Open DraftKings Value Picks

Harold Varner III ($7300)

He has an infectious smile like Tiger Woods without the sponsor-cleansed-and-polished automaton part. I could fill the page talking about all the reasons you should like HVIII. But he's more than just a great guy, he's a pretty gosh darn good golfer too, which I realize is why you are reading this article.

Currently ranked 35th on the Overall World Golf Rankings, this huge NBA fan is making plenty of shots himself. The site for this week's Open, The Country Club in Brookline, is like most US Opens in that it will not be a bomber's paradise. The rough will be quite penal while the greens are not only fast but protected by all kinds of various hazards. Second shots will be more important than what players do off the tee. And that is good for Varner who is unfortunately 121st in SG: Off the Tee, but 29th in SG: Approaching the Green and even better 13th on Tour in SG: Around the Green. That kind of combination is why we could easily see Varner in the top 25 this week.

Patrick Reed ($7200)

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We move from a golfer I love to root for every week to one I almost always root against. One thing I do love about Reed is that he seems to relish playing "the heel" or "baddie". I could list all the reasons why I don't like Reed, but let's just stick with the most recent. Reed, unsurprisingly, is one of the golfers who are no longer a PGA member and joined the controversial LIV tour.

But I was shocked to see him priced this low. He has plenty of experience in Majors, which includes his Masters victory in 2018.  This 9-time tour winner doesn't just play well at Augusta though. In last year's US Open, for example, he held a one-stroke lead after two rounds of the U.S. Open before finishing T13. Reed is still currently 38th in the OWGR (overall world golf ranking) and should easily be priced within the top 50 options on DraftKings. He's not. Reed is one of the better well-known bargains this week.

Adam Hadwin ($7000)

Adam Hadwin is going to outdrive very few of his competitors not just this week, but most weeks. But his lack of distance off the tee is not an issue this week, and what he lacks in distance, he makes up for in accuracy. He's 43rd in Driving Accuracy and 26th in Greens in Regulation. He's 42nd in SG: Approaching in the Green and 13th in SG: Around the Green. His highest finish in a US Open is 39th, but he's having a very strong year, and I suspect he betters that mark this year.

Matthew NeSmith ($6900)

NeSmith is by far my favorite play under $7K this week. I became a "Cock Daddy" less than a year ago when my oldest started attending the University of South Carolina this past September. So I naturally root for any former Gamecock and NeSmith fits that bill. However, he's made six straight cuts. He is also one of the more accurate golfers you are going to find this far down in the salary range. He's 57th in Driving Accuracy; 29th in GIR; and 31st in SG: Approaching the Green.

That's a pretty good match! Unfortunately, his experience in majors is very limited. However, I do like him to make the cut this week and at this level, that's all we need at this price.

Ardi Arnous ($6800)

Arnous is a high leverage play as I will be shocked if he's even 5% owned this week. But he should be. He is 53rd in the OWGR, but he spends most of his time overseas on the Euro tour so many DFS players don't even know who he is. But he's a pretty good player, who did make the cut at the US Open back when he played it in 2019. More recently, he has shown his Majors mettle with a T-30 at the PGA Championship a month ago.

But he's solid no matter where he plays. He is 10th on the Euro tour. Arnous has made the cut in his last five tourneys over there, including a victory in Catalunya Championship at the end of April. If you're looking for a deep, lesser-known sleeper, this is your guy. But if you are looking to really scrape the bottom of the bargain barrel bin, we do have an option for you.

MJ Daffue ($6100)

I would be very careful going this low and it's possible he actually gives you a negative score. However, I will admit I do have a share of him in an entry where I am absolutely stacked and just needed a roster filler. And I do like his upside.

This South African is currently crushing it on the Korn Ferry Tour. He has five top-ten finishes which have helped him climb to fourth in the Korn Ferry Rankings, and from a statistical perspective, he's 3rd in scoring average and T-3 in all-around.  Yes, this is his first major, but he's not as green as you might think. Daffue made the cut in each of his last five PGA events.

I would only use Daffue if you have to, but I do like him better than at least 25 of the options more expensive than him.

Check out Tyler's 2022 U.S. Open Favorites to Fade!

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