2022 U.S. Open Favorites to Fade

by Tyler Marling
2022 U.S. Open Favorites to Fade

The PGA Tour is heading to Brookline, Massachusetts for the third major of the year as The Country Club will host the U.S. Open and I'll be supplying some 2022 U.S. Open favorites to fade!

This is always a tricky subject to tackle because more often than not betting favorites litter the top of the leaderboard in majors. It's no different this time around as I like DraftKings favorites Rory McIlroy (+1100), Justin Thomas (+1100), and Jon Rahm (+1200).

The Country Club is not a super demanding golf course from a length perspective, as it measures in at just north of 7,200 yards. However, like with a typical U.S. Open setup, the rough will be thick and the golf course will be firm, making scoring conditions very difficult.

A good short game and accurate tee balls will be key this week, as well as having the guts to go out and compete in a major. Some guys just don't have that "it" factor in major tournament play.

2022 U.S. Open Favorites to Fade

Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

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Generally speaking, I like Patrick Cantlay on a week-to-week basis. He's going to be a consistent top-20 finisher and really doesn't have a weakness in his game. Just looking at his stats from a high-level perspective, Cantlay shows extremely well in the major strokes gained categories. One of his worst stats is SG: Approach the green, where he ranks 61st.

Cantlay is 14th in SG: Total for the season, proving that he is one of the best all-around players on the PGA Tour.

However, something about Cantlay and performances in major tournament play is just a bit off. He has teed it up in the four major's a total of 21 times. He has made 17-out-of-21 cuts, which is respectable. However, he only has four top 15 finishes in 21 attempts.

His U.S. Open finishes haven't been anything to write home about. His best finish was last year when he finished T-15th. In his other five starts at the U.S. Open, he has finished T-21st, T-21st, T-41st, T-45th, and T-43rd.

I like Cantlay to make the cut, but I can't see him winning this week.

Dustin Johnson (+2800)

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+2800 odds probably don't scream favorite but Dustin Johnson is currently tied for 9th shortest odds in a field of 156 players. Johnson has been solid in the U.S. Open, historically. He has a win in the tournament and has finished in the top 10 five other times.

However, he hasn't had a great year this season from a statistical standpoint. He has dropped all the way down to 16th in the official world golf rankings (OWGR). He has been terrible around the greens, 150th in SG: Around-the-green, and with his putter, 158th in SG: putting. As a whole, he is just 58th in SG: total for the season.

Not only has he had an average season, but it's also going to be an uncomfortable week for him this week, in my opinion.

The whole LIV golf thing is going to cast a bit of a shade over him and with him being a top-tier name in the world of golf, it may cause some of the PGA Tour guys to cast him as an outcast.

Justin Thomas has used Johnson as an example of saying him moving to LIV doesn't change his opinion of him, but Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm have given scathing remarks on LIV golf over the past week.

I think there is going to be some tension for some of the LIV golf guys and tension in your golf swing is not a good thing. I'm fading Johnson hard this week.


Check out Mark's U.S. Open Prop Bets Picks and my FanDuel DFS Picks!

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