Welcome to the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-26-23
Last weekend was the NBA All-Star Weekend and in my opinion the best all-star showcase of the big four American sports. Yeah, the Homerun Derby is cool for baseball and the hardest slapshot in hockey is fun. Who knows what the NFL is doing anymore with their all-star showcase, but the whole NBA experience is great entertainment.
You have the rising stars game/tournament on Friday night which is a three-game mini-tournament that features all the NBA young stars. There is also a celebrity basketball game which has a collection of pop culture figures and other celebrities faceoff on the court.
Then Saturday is the best part of the weekend when the All-Star Saturday night takes the center stage. There are three main events which include the skills challenge and then my two favorite events, the 3-point contest and the Crème de la crème, the Slam Dunk Contest.
Sunday night features the actual NBA All-Star game which pits all the top all-stars across the league against each other. This year features a new twist as the All-Star Draft will take place minutes before the game. This new feature is intriguing as the stars will now not who they are playing with or against till minutes before tip-off. Which always makes for good storylines. The best part of the NBA All-Star game is the lack of defense played which then leads to high-flying dunks, flashy passes, and just all-around entertainment.
I know this isn't a basketball article so let's switch gears and jump into this week's Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.
2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-26-23
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Buy
Cristian Javier, RHP, Houston Astros
The former long reliever turned starter. Javier is showing that he belongs in the rotation going forward and can be a force to reckon with while on the mound. The right-handed pitcher just signed a five-year $64M extension with the Astros this past week.
Javier is coming off his first full season as a starter and had a ton of success. He made 25 starts and had a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 194 K in 148 IP. While also throwing a combined no hitter in the World Series.
Among all starting pitchers with at least 140 IP. Javier's 2.53 ERA ranked as the tenth best and was better than notable names such as Bieber, Rodon, Musgrove, and Burnes.
The advanced metrics are also very encouraging as he ranks in the top 5% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and K%. The strikeout rate is what sets Javier among the greats. His 33K% ranked as the second-best among pitchers with at least 140 IP in 2022. He also had a 28CSW% which is right at that elite 30% level.
Javier features a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. However, he relies heavily on his fastball and slider combo. Mixing both up nicely as he throws those two pitches 88% of the time. The slider is his true out pitch with a 28% put-away rate.
The arrow for Javier's dynasty value is pointing up and he is still only 25 years old. Therefore I would be looking to buy Javier now before he becomes the next elite pitcher.
Sell
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
The big left-handed masher had a career year in 2022 for the Milwaukee Brewers. After being stuck in a reserve role in Toronto. Tellez saw his first full-time season in 2022 with the Brewers. Tellez saw many successes in 2022 including a 35 HR season.
The 35 HR season ranked in the top 10 among all qualified hitters and top three among all qualified first basemen. He also drove in 89 runners which were a career-high. Another career best was his 67 runs scored.
However, there are a few reasons to have concerns with Tellez. First of all, he does not hit for a high average. He holds a .236 batting average and had a below-average batting average in 2022 when he hit an abysmal .219 which ranked as the 10th worst among all qualified hitters and second worst among all qualified first basemen
Tellez also doesn't get on base at a high clip either. He has a career of .307 OBP and only had a .306 OBP in 2022 and his career-high OBP was .346 during the COVID shortened 2020 season.
Furthermore, Tellez hits the ball on the ground a lot for someone that wants to elevate the ball and hit home runs. He had a 40% ground ball rate in 2022. He has also had a groundball rate above 40% in the past three seasons.
In 2022 among all the qualified hitters that hit 30+ HR, Tellez had the eighth-highest groundball rate. Additionally, his .306 and .767 OPS was essentially the worst among all hitters with at least 30+ HR.
Tellez is coming off a career in 2022 and some warning signs suggest that we have reached peak value on Rowdy Tellez. Therefore I would be looking to sell him now.
Be sure to check out the last Buy or Sell as well.
