Welcome to the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 3-21-23
As I sit here and prepare for my hometown, Head to Head, category auction draft, my mind starts to drift and think about all the different formats and types of fantasy baseball. There are auction drafts, snake drafts, head-to-head points, head-to-head categories, rotisserie leagues, Ottoneu, etc. Let me stop my Bubba from Forrest Gump impression as I list off all types of leagues similar to how Bubba lists all the ways to cook and eat shrimp.
A very over-the-top complicated auction league is my favorite format. What makes it the most enjoyable for me is not the fact that it's over complex and super in-depth. It is the fact the league is very unique and brings a lot of different aspects to fantasy baseball that most other leagues don't provide.
What is your favorite format to play fantasy baseball? Feel free to leave a comment below. I am always curious about what type of leagues the masses are playing and enjoying the most.
Now let's jump into this week's Buy or Sell.
2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 3-21-23
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Buy
Spencer Steer, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Steer is someone that has been on my radar since he hit 24 home runs in 2021 when he was in the Minnesota Twins organization. Steer was the Twin's third-round pick in 2019 and has never been an ultra prospect, as he was never touted as a top 100 prospect by any of the outlets.
Spencer Steer goes out to the deepest part of the yard.
The No. 5 @Reds prospect wallops his way into the Cactus League homer column: pic.twitter.com/4YeXhV9zWw
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 4, 2023
However, Steer is worth rostering in dynasty formats for many different reasons. This is mainly due to his power upside. As I said he had 24 bombs in 2021 but he also had 18 doubles and three triples across two levels.
He followed his impressive 2021 by repeating the power numbers in 2022 when he hit 23 home runs and 30 doubles with two triples across two high levels of the minors. Steer holds a .483 career slugging rate and a .846 career OPS in the minors.
Steer was shipped off to Cincinnati in the 2022 season trade that sent Tyler Mahle back to the Twins. Once Steer arrived in Cincinnati he was promoted to the big league club where he got a small cup of coffee. Unfortunately, the power didn't show up for steer in his first 28 games as he only hit two home runs.
To start the 2023 season Steer is slated to be the Reds starting third baseman. The at-bats will be there. Furthermore, half of those at-bats are going to come in the game's most hitter-friendly stadium, The Great American Ballpark.
I was buying into Steer in 2021 but if you missed the early bus, now would be a good time to hop on the hype train. I believe Steer could produce 30-HR seasons at his peak.
Sell
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Miami Marlins
The Marlin's 2017 first-round pick had a great rookie season in 2021. Rogers also finished second in the National League rookie of the year voting behind only Jonathan India.
In 2021 we saw Rogers post a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and strike out 157 batters in 133 IP. His 2.64 ERA ranked as the sixth-best among all pitchers with at least 120 IP. Furthermore, his 29K% rate was the 17th best among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched.
After an abysmal 2022 season, I was willing to give Rogers a pass and label it as a sophomore slump. He even started this spring with a solid first two outings and was buying back in on Rogers. However, I think after his last two starts, I might be back out on Rogers.
This is especially true when we look at his start the past Friday. He surrendered eight runs on seven hits and only struck out two batters in four innings. He gave up a ton of hard contact including multiple hits with an exit velocity above 105mph.
Rogers also saw a dip in his fastball velocity and a decrease in his sinker velocity. He was also able to generate only six whiffs on 36 swings for a 17% whiff rate with a sub 20CSW%.
Normally I would say no worries it was just one game and a small sample from a somewhat meaningless spring training game. However, we saw these similar awful type outcomes and numbers in the past and it just last year.
His 2022 season was one he would rather forget. He finished with a 5.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Both of which ranked in the 10 worst among all pitchers with at least 100 IP.
One of the issues that has me concerned is the fact the changeup and slider might not be as elite as we all thought after having success with the breaking pitches in 2021. Both his whiff rate and put-away rates for those two pitches took a huge dip in 2022 compared to 2021. This caused his K% rate to dip 6% last year and his CSW rate dip 4%.
As you can see there are concerns in his abilities as of late, therefore I would be looking to sell Rogers in dynasty leagues.
