Dennis was supposed to be back by now to cover the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Start-Sit article, but apparently is having too much fun drinking Don Perignon with cover models on various yachts. He asked me to cover for him for one more week. I'm a gracious and industrious individual. Thus I agreed.
So yeah, you're stuck with me again for the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Start-Sit. If you have an issue with that, let Dennis know. He probably won't get your letters until his jetsetting tour is over, but if you want his home address, DM me and I will let you know what it is.
Although I'll be the one smiling at the end of the year. That's because Mr. Sosic and I played another this past week in one of our mutual leagues and I beat him handily. And that's even despite Dennis starting one of my star recommendations from last week, Nico Collins, against me.
My "sits" were more spot on last week than my starts, but I still had a pretty good week. And that's despite going pretty deep. But there's always room for improvement!
Let's see if I can nail that improvement with my 2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Start-Sit recommendations.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Start-Sit
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Start - Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith hits DK Metcalf for the first touchdown of the game ? pic.twitter.com/X51xcteVjR
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 3, 2023
With Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts out this week, I guarantee you someone in your league is looking to stream a quarterback this week. I know Geno hasn't exactly been worthing writing about lately, but let's not write him off just yet. And even though he was correctly on the "sit" side of this article last week, you could do far worse this week.
For starters, the books have the Over/Under for this game at over 45 points with Seattle having an implied total of 27 points. Try finding a game where a team scored 27 points and the quarterback had a miserable fantasy day. I promise you those games are few and far between. Furthermore, the "pacing" of this game should be high with Washington's Sam Howell leading the NFL in both dropbacks (421) and pass attempts (353).
Speaking of Washington, the Commanders have given up the fourth most fantasy points per game to QBs this season. So that matchup is one in which Smith should have some success. I'd bet on the bounceback.
Sit - Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings
The Dobbs story from this past week is a nice story and I'm happy for Dobbs. But I think it's more of an incrimination against Arthur Smith than it is Dobbs has oodles of talent. He can run better than the average quarterback. But he is still quite a few notches below Michael Vick.
And his passing is still league-average at best. He's 19th amongst quarterbacks in passing yards. His yards per attempt are way down the list, beyond such notables as PJ Walker, Tommy Devito, and Blaine Gabbert. But even when including his rushing prowess, he still is only the 17th-best QB this year in fantasy points per game. And I believe he'll be hard-pressed to finish inside the top 20 QBs this week.
Because New Orleans has very quietly settled itself in as the 9th best fantasy DST this year. They are the sixth stingiest defense when it comes to allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Saints Defense has an impressive second-lowest completion rate allowed this season as well as a league-leading 12 INTs.
I'd start Dobbs only if he is your only option.
Start - Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson. Untouched. @Commanders up 10-0!
— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023
I went back and forth between Robinson and Jamyr Gibbs here. Both are regularly found outside the Top 15 this week and I like both to sniff RB1 territory this week. Yet I decided to go with Robinson as he seems to have a much firmer grasp on being the primary back than Gibbs does.
Also, I was not expecting much from Robinson against New England last week and he surprised me with a pretty decent fantasy day. Don't look now, but Robinson is tied for tenth amongst RBs in rushing TDs and tied for fourth amongst RBs in receiving TDs. And it's not like he's just a goalline back. He also has nearly 600 yards on the season.
And I expect that total to grow against Seattle, who are allowing the 12th most rushing yards per game and the sixth most rushing touchdowns per game. It's not sexy, but I'm finding Brian Robinson this week quite attractive.
the bottom ten. Henderson won't finish as a RB1, but bank on him giving you RB2 production at worst.
Sit - Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens
Let's be clear--I absolutely love Keaton Mitchell. I was on him nearly three months ago. But it's his long-term value I love. I know he was likely the top waiver-wire pick in most leagues this week. But his immediate short-term value STINKS.
Baltimore's backfield will be a three-headed monster and a fantasy headache likely for the rest of the season. Mitchell is a "Hail Mary" play at best.
And going against Cleveland, who has allowed the fourth fewest points to RB this season? Mitchell is a great long-term investment, but his immediate return will be minimal at best.
Start - Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence finds WR Christian Kirk.
Touchdown! Jags up 3 possessions! pic.twitter.com/XENKrdqAtu
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) October 15, 2023
So Philadelphia has given up the most fantasy points to WRs this season. Just a few points behind them is Tampa Bay. I doubt either of those rankings is a surprise. But you might be surprised to find out that the 49ers have given up the third most fantasy points to WRs this season.
I know I was surprised. And it's been particularly bad over the last couple of weeks, as they have given up over 50 WR PPR points over each of their last two weeks. Meanwhile, Kirk has a touchdown in two of the last three weeks to go along with his 520 receiving yards and more than five catches per game.
I don't believe I have any shares of Christian Kirk, but if I did, I'd absolutely start him this week.
Start - Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
Saints' big-play Rashid Shaheed leads NFL in punt return average and yards per catch, and he's still growing as a player after signing as an undrafted rookie from a small school last year. https://t.co/1k4SkfWuRi
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 3, 2023
Shaheed is probably never going to be a better play in PPR league. But I think he absolutely is in the WR3 tier this week in standard leagues. He's well on his way to more than a thousand yards and at least half a dozen touchdowns. Not too shabby!
Minnesota is giving up the 9th most fantasy points to WRs this season. Not only that but one of their biggest weaknesses aligns perfectly with Shaheed's strength of being a long-ball threat. They have allowed 218 completions of 20 yards or more, the third most in the league.
Shaheed is often a boom-or-bust play, but I like him to boom this week.
Potential "Hail Mary" WRs to Start: All Denver WRs and Gabe Davis (BUF)
Sit - Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
I want to be very clear about this. If Cooper is your third-best WR option this week, I'd start him. But if he was my second-best option or higher, I'd be extremely nervous.
That Ravens secondary was strong to start the year and is getting even better. Geno Stone is potentially a poor man's Ed Reed already and is surrounded by the highly-rated Marcus Williams and All-Pro Marlon Humphrey. Kyle Hamilton is making the leap this year and is one of the better strong safetys in the league.
And it probably has a lot more to do with the Browns' QB play than Cooper's, but the fact that he is averaging less than 80 yards a game and has just two touchdowns leaves me needing a lot more from him before being worthy of an obvious start.
Sit - Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
I am seeing Meyers listed in the top 35 and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why. Meyers might be a top 50 option. But he's not a WR3, unless you are truly in a pinch and my guess is you have at least three better options.
Because Meyers hasn't done too much. The five TDs this season are nice, but he has yet to see even 90 yards a game. And he hasn't even seen 65 yards since Columbus Day, including just 38 yards and 19 yards each of the last two weeks (and no TDs). Unless you are in a TD-only league, I'm struggling to figure out why folks have him ranked that high.
Furthermore, do you understand how strong the Jets defense is? They are the LEAST generous teams when it comes to WRs fantasy points, allowing just 21.6 PPR points per weeks. That is miles, i.e. nearly five points ahead of the next closest team, Cleveland. If we went down five points from second place Cleveland, we'd be a 10th ranked Rams.
Meyers might be one of the easier Sit suggestions I've had over the last few weeks.
Start - Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
TE Trey McBride (ARI):
McBride finally had his breakout game to the tune of 10 receptions for 95 yards and a TD on 14 targets. Yes, 14 targets!
With Zach Ertz on the IR, look for McBride to continue to get all the looks at TE. He played a season high 82% of snaps in Week 8!… pic.twitter.com/bbPrnCs7xe
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) October 31, 2023
It is time.
The Trey McBride Breakout Game is coming.
Okay, maybe he's already had it. His 95 yards on ten receptions including one for a touchdown against the Ravens a couple of weeks ago was impressive. But if you want to argue that was his breakout game, this his second one is nigh. Because I will call my shot and say he does even more than that this week with Kyler Murray under center this week. Murray loves to target his big-body catching options.
Furthermore, he is taking on the "pass funnel" defense that is Atlanta who is also giving up the 11th most fantasy points per game to TEs this year. I grabbed McBride a couple weeks ago in one of my leagues as a backup for Mark Andrews' bye in a few weeks. But I'm considering starting McBride over Andrews this week. I'm pretty sure that tells you how much I endorse starting McBride this week.
Sit - Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Seeing that Everett's matchup is against the Lions, you might be tempted to roll with Everett this week. After all, the Lions have allowed the 5th most TE fantasy points per game. But it's not always about the matchup. And this is one of those times.
First off, Detroit is coming off a bye and should be well rested. In addition, Det CB Jerry Jacobs is looking strong with three INTs and is on pace to shatter his yearly tackle total. It's part of the reason that Detroit is allowing the tenth-fewest passing yards per game. Third, even though Everett had a better night on Monday, we know Donald Parham gets the red zone looks before Everett does.
Hard pass on Everett this week.