If you are researching stocks in the market to invest in, how long are you looking at their profit/loss sheet? Weeks? Months? Keep that in mind with the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Stock Up/Stock Down article.
One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy Football. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy Football performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 9? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Stock Up/Stock Down
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Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time this season, Rashee Rice almost broke 70% of snaps played for the Kansas City Chiefs (he had 69%). Based on how he is performing, I would be surprised if we see a number below 60% in any healthy game he plays the rest of the season. Rice now has a streak of five games going with at least 56 yards or a touchdown. He leads all non-Travis Kelce Chiefs in targets over the past three weeks with 13 and is seeing a growing role each game.
Perhaps most importantly, however, he leads all wide receivers and running backs on the team with ten Red Zone targets this season. Patrick Mahomes already trusts him in the high-leverage area and his four touchdowns in nine games are the proof.
The Chiefs offense looked to be back to its efficient ways on Sunday against the Dolphins and that's partially because Mahomes is finally starting to develop some rapport with other receivers besides Kelce. Rice is firmly at the top of that list and looks to be a great add in any Fantasy Football format at the moment.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
If you're keeping up with NFL injury news (and of course you are, you play Fantasy Football), you know there's really not much analysis that needs to be shared here. Justin Jefferson typically ranks top-ten among wide receivers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, yards after the catch, and touchdowns. Now all that is gone for likely at least a couple more weeks, and K.J. Osborn left Sunday's game with a concussion. Cam Akers is lost to an Achilles injury and the competition for the ball is dwindling.
The arrow looked to be pointing down after the Kirk Cousins injury and Jaren Hall was projected to take over. But Hall was injured in Week 9 and Josh Dobbs - with no practice time - came in and sparked the offense to a come-from-behind win. In that game, Addison was second on the team with seven targets and will continue to be the number one as long as Jefferson out. Somehow, the Vikings are in playoff contention, so they will also look to be competitive in every game.
Meanwhile, Addison is a first-round talent who is already up to fifth among wide receivers in Fantasy Points per target (2.43). Now, he may be about to start getting a WHOLE LOT more of those targets and they will be much more valuable with Josh Dobbs as opposed to Hall.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
In a post-J.K. Dobbins world for the Baltimore Ravens, we may finally have some real clarity about who will lead this backfield all season - and it's the guy with six touchdowns over the last three games. I understand Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell active and getting a lot of the blowout work in Week 9. Still, Gus Edwards managed 52 yards and two touchdowns on just five rush attempts.
Despite being over 28 years old, Edwards ranks 18th among all running backs in yards per touch. He is already 24th in rushing yards this season. This includes being part-time player in some games and in a downright multiple-player timeshare in others.
The Ravens' offensive philosophy should also help bolster his value the rest of the year. They lead the league in rush play percentage this season (51%). Despite the rhetoric that they would be more pass-happy this season, they rush more than any other team. Edwards has sucked away all the value from other Ravens' pass-catchers (more on that below). Now he is also starting to take away goal line looks from Lamar Jackson. They have also benefited from positive game script. In terms of overall game script this season, Edwards' situation ranks 10th-best among all running backs.
Top 5 RBs the Last 3 Weeks:
Rachaad and Gus are in ELITE Company
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) November 7, 2023
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
A wide receiver doesn't just put out a social media post with the phrase "Free me" unless there is something really wrong with their situation. For Pickens, that thing causing him so much heartburn is named Diontae Johnson. Since Johnson returned from, Pickens has gone from the clear alpha to a bumbling Alfalfa.
In the four weeks Johnson missed, Pickens averaged just over eight targets per game. Now, he has back-to-back games with just five targets. Johnson, meanwhile, has 29 targets in the last three weeks and ranks sixth in the NFL in overall target share during that span (31.5%).
Pickens has three total receptions and 23 total yards over the last two games. His actions on and off the field are showing he is frustrated with his role and the state of the Steelers' offense. On the season, Pickens ranks ninth in snap share among receivers (he hasn't missed a game). However he is just 27th in target share. His 23% is not awful by any means. But the up and down nature of the targets plus his dissatisfaction now has me concerned.
All Baltimore Ravens Pass-Catchers Not Named Mark Andrews
Once upon a time earlier this season, Zay Flowers was a big deal. In Weeks 5-7 he averaged about five receptions and almost 70 yards per game. In the last two weeks, that has fallen off to six total catches and 30 total yards. He hasn't scored in three weeks. Flowers has only seen three Red Zone targets over the last three weeks.
His struggles are indicative of every pass catcher for Baltimore not named Mark Andrews. All of Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor essentially can't be started in fantasy right now considering the nature of the Baltimore offense. In addition to the 51% rush rate we looked at above, the team averages just 208 passing yards per game, and Mark Andrews gets 24% of the targets and 20% of the air yards.
That leaves around 150 yards per game to be dispersed to four receivers, another tight end (Isaiah Likely), and three running backs. Jackson also now ranks 19th among quarterbacks in average air yards per attempt (7.7). He isn't even throwing it downfield when he does drop back.
If I have Bateman, Beckham, or Agholor in a redraft league, they are getting dropped for another useful pass-catcher. If I have Flowers in a redraft league, I am trading him for what I can get the next time he has a decent game.
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