If you are researching stocks in the market to invest in, how long are you looking at their profit/loss sheet? Weeks? Months? Keep that in mind with the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 11 Stock Up/Stock Down article.
One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy Football. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy Football performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 10? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 11 Stock Up/Stock Down
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Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
In a game where Gus Edwards was held to just 24 yards on 11 carries (albeit against a great Cleveland defense), rookie Keaton Mitchell stole the show again with 66 yards and a touchdown on just four touches. He played a season-high 24% of the snaps and there are now increasingly loud whispers out of Baltimore that Mitchell will start to be more involved in the offense. That's great for Mitchell considering the schedule and opportunity he can have in this offense.
The Ravens run the ball more than any other team in the league - 51.3% after Sunday. For all the talk about Baltimore becoming more pass-heavy this year, they seem to have doubled-down on all the rushers they have on their team. That means there is enough rushing usage here to accommodate Edwards, Mitchell, and even Lamar Jackson all as Fantasy Football options. Next, the Ravens face the Bengals and Chargers. Both are top-14 in Fantasy Points allowed to the position.
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Any thoughts the Vikings might have had on tanking with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson hurt are long gone after two dramatic wins courtesy of Josh Dobbs. Justin Jefferson is also likely returning this week. Dobbs is the best fantasy quarterback in the game over the last two weeks with more than 25 points per game. He rushes for touchdowns, he throws for touchdowns, and he is about to graduate from streamer to full-on every-week starter.
Under the hood, the stats show Dobbs is a perfectly average quarterback this year, including ranking 14th in Fantasy Points per drop-back and 12th in air yards per attempt. But when the chips are down, Dobbs is delivering. He ranks seventh among all quarterbacks in Red Zone completion percentage and sixth in pressured catchable pass rate, according to Player Profiler.
Joshua Dobbs has cleared 20 fantasy points in four games this year. Trevor Lawrence hasn't done it once.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) November 9, 2023
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Sometimes NFL wide receivers earn their points off a few targets and getting lucky on some downfield throws (think someone like Rashid Shaheed). Then there are wide receivers who get a lot of high-quality targets and earn good chunks of yards on each one (someone like Keenan Allen). Last, there is Garrett Wilson. Wilson is absolutely being peppered with targets right now. They are horrific targets in terms of accuracy and efficiency, but Wilson is making Fantasy Football managers happy with insane levels of volume.
Only CeeDee Lamb has seen more than Wilson's 40 targets over the last three weeks. Wilson hasn't seen fewer than 12 targets since Week 5. Zach Wilson is throwing the ball, of course, so he isn't putting up CeeDee Lamb numbers. However, Wilson is doing the best with what he has. Among all wide receivers, Wilson ranks 83rd in QB Rating per Target. That is just in incredibly bad number for one of the league's best receivers. The fact that he is still a Top-20 wide receiver this year is a tribute to just how special he is.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
No, this inclusion on the Stock Down list for Trevor Lawrence is not just because of the beat down they took against San Francisco at home on Sunday. It's because T-Law has simply not been good this year. It's even worse than his 9:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio through 10 weeks. Lawrence has just the 18th-most Fantasy Points through 10 weeks of the season. Kirk Cousins has more points than him and Cousin was lost for the season in Week 8. Lawrence has just 13 more Fantasy Points than Mac Jones this year. Mac. Jones.
It's all set up for Lawrence to succeed this year, he just isn't doing it. The Jaguars rank sixth in game script, fourth in protection rate, and 16th in pace of play. But Lawrence ranks 27th in air yards per attempt and 31st in pressured completion percentage. When he gets in a bind, he crumbles, which is simply killing the passing game for Jacksonville.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
It's officially time for full, red-alarm, panic mode with Tony Pollard after the Cowboys scored seven touchdowns yet he only gained 55 rushing yards with no scores. Dallas rushed for three touchdowns and none of them went to Tony Pollard. In terms of players drafted in the top-20, Pollard is right up there with the biggest busts on the season. Pollard has scored more than eight points in half-PPR just once since Week 3. Now Rico Dowdle is playing 30%-40% of snaps in some games.
What exactly is it that is holding Pollard down? Is it true that he thrives more in a part-time role and not a work-horse role? There might be something to that with all the usage he is getting. Pollard is 29th in evaded tackles among running backs, and he is 52nd in juke rate and 24th in breakaway run rate. He just doesn't have the shiftiness and extra burst he displayed as a backup to Ezekiel Elliott and he just can't be considered an RB1 at the moment.
Sorry Tony Pollard, no cake for you ? pic.twitter.com/gA0sD8kUDn
— James D Koh (@JamesDKoh) November 13, 2023
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