If you are researching stocks in the market to invest in, how long are you looking at their profit/loss sheet? Weeks? Months? Keep that in mind with the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 4 Stock Up/Stock Down article.
One single week in the NFL (especially early in the season) is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy Football. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy Football performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 3? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 4 Stock Up/Stock Down
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars might have just been smacked on their home field by a plucky Houston Texans team, but there was one bright spot on an otherwise dark day for Jacksonville's offense and defense. Travis Etienne even further solidified his dominance in this backfield with 71% of the snaps in the backfield and five of the eight running back targets. His day ended with 138 total yards on 23 touches compared to two touches for Tank Bigsby.
Etienne ranks eighth overall in the NFL Next Gen Stat's efficiency rating and he ranks fifth among running backs in snap share (79%). In addition, Etienne has been a fantastic receiver. His 76% route participation is fifth among all backs. He has a 12% target share this year, and that number should improve when Trevor Lawrence remembers how to be a good quarterback again.
The only weak spot in Etienne's armor is Red Zone usage. Etienne is 34th among running backs with three Red Zone touches this year. Bigsby has matched that number as well. But this is likely a product of the stalled offense through three weeks. Right now, Jacksonville is tied for 21st with just 2.7 Red Zone opportunities per game. As that number improves, so should Etienne's high-value opportunities.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
On the other side of the Jaguars-Texans game on Sunday, rookie receiver Tank Dell had his coming-out party. Dell torched the Jacksonville secondary time and time again for big plays, ending with five catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. He just missed another one after being tackled at the one-yard line.
Dell is now among the Top-20 wide receivers in air yards and has a 29% air yards share through three games. Dell ranks 15th at the position in target separation, according to Player Profiler. But the best part of his game might just be that he is partnered with rookie stud quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has come out firing through three games and is one of just three rookie signal-callers in the history of the league to reach 900 passing yards in their first three games.
This pair is destined to be a Fantasy Football match made in heaven for at least the next five years. Long after dust balls like Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz are gone, Dell will be burning defenders for big gains.
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
What more really needs to be said after De'Von Achane scored 51.3 PPR points on Sunday including more than 230 total yards and four touchdowns. The only real takeaway is that there should be no more games like Week 1 where Achane did not play. Even if Jeff Wilson, Jr. comes back after four weeks, the Dolphins can't keep him off the field.
Why? Because he is exactly their type of player. That is to say he is blazing fast and has elite ball skills. His 4.32 40-yard-dash time was 99th percentile at the combine. He is just a pint-sized version of Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert.
The fastest ball carriers in a game this season, via @NextGenStats:
1. Tyreek Hill, Week 3: 22.07 MPH
2. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.93 MPH
3. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.66 MPH
4. Raheem Mostert, Week 2: 21.62 MPH
5. Tyreek Hill, Week 1: 21.52 MPH
6. De'Von Achane, Week 3: 21.5 MPH…
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 25, 2023
The next game for Achane is against a stout Buffalo defense, but then he gets the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. Both of those teams allow top-ten Fantasy Points to the running back position. By the time you've read this, you've probably already dropped whatever FAAB you have on him if he was available. I'm just hear to tell you it was the right decision.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Usage and opportunity is certainly not Rachaad White's problem this season. He is coming off a game where he played 91% of snaps and got all the running back targets and Red Zone targets. His problem is efficiency. In the game against the Eagles on Monday night, White was negative 20 rush yards under expectation. That was the worst number in Week 3 after he finished with just 38 yards on 14 carries. That marks the second time this season that White has 14 or more carries and less than 40 rushing yards.
"But it was a one-game sample against the tough Eagles," you say. That is true, but the seasonal numbers are not good either. White ranks 46th in true yards per carry, 39th in yards per touch, and a horrific 95th in expected points added (-6-8). He is a player who has hurt his team more than he has helped them through three weeks.
Sean Tucker, an undrafted rookie with size and speed, is waiting in the wings. He hasn't cracked the rotation in a meaningful way yet, but he rushed for 1,060 yards and caught 36 balls in his last year in college. He also scored 13 times for Syracuse and only injury concerns caused him to fall. White likely has a longer leash than three weeks, but things are not headed in the right direction with his efficiency.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
The game script certainly didn't help Derrick Henry stay on the field to produce his normal robust Fantasy Football stats. But let's be honest, Henry's performance on Sunday was nothing like we're used to. First of all, rookie Tyjae Spears out-snapped Henry 27-18 and had four targets to Henry's zero. Henry had more rush attempts (11 to 4), but 11 rushes only went for 20 yards.
Henry is just 44th in true yards per carry and 41st in evaded tackles. Those two numbers tell me he doesn't have the juice in the early going this year to get past defenders and break tackles.
One saving grace for Henry this season has been his eight Red Zone touches, which rank fourth at the position. But those have only earned him one touchdown in three weeks. He is now 37th in Fantasy Points per opportunity (0.59), because he can't get in the end zone.
Spears is the future and if Henry keeps looking like the 29-year-old running back that he is, the future may come sooner rather than later.
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