If you are researching stocks in the market to invest in, how long are you looking at their profit/loss sheet? Weeks? Months? Keep that in mind with the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 6 Stock Up/Stock Down article.
One single week in the NFL (especially early in the season) is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy Football. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy Football performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 5? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 6 Stock Up/Stock Down
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
If you're keeping up with NFL injury news (and of course you are, you play fantasy football), you know there's really not much analysis that needs to be shared here. Justin Jefferson ranks top-ten among wide receivers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, yards after the catch, and touchdowns. Now all that is gone for likely at least four weeks, and there is a case to be made Jefferson doesn't come back at all.
With the Vikings already at 1-4 on the season, what will inspire Jefferson to rush back and risk re-injury if the Vikings fall to 2-7 over the next four weeks? He did not get the massive extension he wanted from Minnesota, so he might want to save his body for next season. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it could.
Meanwhile, Addison is a first-round talent who is already 21st among wide receivers in Fantasy Points per target. Now, he may be about to start getting a WHOLE LOT more of those targets.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson being out for 4-6 weeks may not be a bad thing for the Colts' wide receivers since they have arguably the best backup quarterback in the league in Gardner Minshew. After Richardson left the game early on Sunday, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs feasted.
Of the 18 targets seen by wide receivers and running backs, Pittman and Downs got 15 of them. Downs had far and away his best game of the season with six catches for 97 yards. He still is looking for his first score, but that will come considering his usage in this offense. Downs has a 100% catch rate this year (obviously tied for best in the league), and the 19th-highest target share versus man coverage.
Week 5 leaders in receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYTPA):
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 10, 2023
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
He finally got there. Breece Hall finally topped 50% of snaps the same week Coach Robert Saleh said he had no restrictions from injury anymore. He was at 52%, so it's not like it was Christian McCaffrey numbers, but Hall is incredibly efficient with his touches. In fact, a case could be made Hall is an easy RB1 even if he doesn't top 60% of snaps in a game.
Hall has the 27th-most carries by a running back this season, but the sixth-most rushing yards. His yards per touch (7.2) ranks second among every running back in the league. And his breakaway run rate (9.6%) is fourth highest in the league. Dalvin Cook is officially dust now, so enjoy the Hall resurgence for the last 12 weeks of the season.
Following Robert Saleh's comments that Breece Hall would no longer be limited, he set season-highs in...
- scrimmage yards
- offensive grade
- run grade
- pass grade
- fantasy pts
... while scoring his first TD of the year.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
Fantasy managers who drafted Miles Sanders as an RB2 this year are certainly not happy with the performance for most of this year. He is averaging just under 40 rushing yards per game and now faces severe playing time competition from Chuba Hubbard (who is a buy right now). In the game against the Lions - all negative game script - Hubbard out-touched and out-snapped Sanders as the Panthers tried to get something, anything, working in Week 5.
Hubbard saw more targets than Sanders on Sunday and Hubbard got both of the running back opportunities in the Red Zone in that game. Sanders has dropped to 55.7% snap share on the season (23rd among backs) and ranks 45th in yards per touch (3.6 on the year). Meanwhile, Hubbard averages 4.24 yards per touch, eighth-best among running backs.
Lowest avoided tackle rates, per @TruMediaSports
(Minimum 50 attempts)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 9, 2023
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Four different Denver Broncos saw more targets than Courtland Sutton on Sunday. Three of their names were Adam Trautman, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine. That wasn't supposed to happen to someone who was not that long ago considered the cornerstone of a rebuilding offense. Now, Sutton is getting shut out in the Red Zone and seeing Russell Wilson develop connection with just about everyone else.
In just about every observable advanced analytic, Sutton is no better than a WR4. He is 38th in air yards, 45th in air yards share, 45th in target share, and 43rd in receiving yards. Sutton is also due more than $26 million dollars over the next two years. However, there is an out in his contract after this season. Some contending team might just want to trade for that kind of rental.
OLB Randy Gregory could be the first of multiple players moved to clear cap space and acquire picks for a rebuild.
— Dominic White (@DomWWhite) October 8, 2023
Check out more Fantasy Football content from F6P's fantastic staff!