If you are researching stocks in the market to invest in, how long are you looking at their profit/loss sheet? Weeks? Months? Keep that in mind with the 2023 Fantasy Football Week 6 Stock Up/Stock Down article.
One single week in the NFL (especially early in the season) is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy Football. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.
We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy Football performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 6? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.
2023 Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Up/Stock Down
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Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
The gap between Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams recently is much closer than you might think. I'm not saying Meyers is anywhere close to Adams' ability or skillset, but the Raiders are using Meyers almost interchangeably with Adams now. Over the last two games, Meyers has 17 targets to just nine for Adams. Meyers also outpaces him with four Red Zone targets to three for Adams.
This might be just as likely due to the simple fact that Adams is drawing a ton of double coverage. But Adams has also had a problem separating in coverage this season. According to Player Profiler, Adams ranks 87th among wide receivers in average cushion with 4.39 yards. He also ranks 59th in target separation. Normally Adams would combat these struggles with an elite contested catch rate, but he is only at 50% this year, which ranks 34th at the position.
Then, of course, there is the out-of-Adams' control piece. Jimmie Garoppolo and Aidan O'Connell have been bad this season, but especially bad with Adams. Meyers is 13th with 19.1 expected Fantasy Points per game and ranks first in dominator rate (the percentage of his team's yards and touchdowns).
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
After three pretty poor games, Calvin Ridley got back on track the last two weeks and showed why he can be a WR1 in fantasy. Zay Jones missed most of these two games so Ridley was able to contribute 152 total receiving yards and a touchdown. He had only 110 yards in Weeks 2-4 combined, and the success came from the Jaguars featuringf Ridley in a new way that played to his skillset.
In Weeks 2-4, Ridley averaged 15.7 yards per reception. That's a very strong downfield number, but it comes with some risk. Longer passes are more likely to not hit their mark, and Ridley only had a 41% catch rate in those weeks. However, in Weeks 5-6, Trevor Lawrence gave Ridley 13.8 yards per reception and that came with a 69% catch rate. The Jaguars have also started getting Ridley involved in different ways, giving him his first three rush attempts in the last three weeks.
He also is set up very well for Week 7 against a team he knows very well.
Calvin Ridley has 556 yards (92.7 per game) in 6 career games vs. the Saints.
Ridley has 90+ yards in 5 of 6 games against the Saints.
He has 90+ yards in 2 of his past 3 games on TNF. pic.twitter.com/0Xvt9fv2ki
— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) October 17, 2023
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Is the long-awaited breakout finally happening for the former fourth overall pick? Pitts now has 17 targets, 11 receptions, 130 yards, and a touchdown over the last two weeks. And while Jonnu Smith has also been productive in that timeframe (103 yards and a score), the Pitts we are seeing now is the one we want for Fantasy Football. It's a far cry from the Pitts who had nine catches for under 80 yards and no scores in Weeks 2-4.
Atlanta is certainly finally using Pitts like a receiver instead of a glorified decoy. But the Falcons' tendencies are also helping Pitts' case. In Atlanta's last game, they passed 63% of the time, and almost 59% of the time in their last three. That's the top half of the league in that span. Compare that to the entire season when Atlanta is 24th in rate of pass plays. And it is wildly different from 2022 when Atlanta was 31st in the NFL with a 44.7% pass rate.
Fantasy managers have waited a long, long time for a Kyle Pitts breakout. This is the closest we have ever been to one.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They have been shaking for some time, but the wheels have officially fallen off for Rachaad White after Week 6. Through the first five weeks of the season, White never had less than 17 touches. He wasn't the most efficient back in the league, but he could get there through volume. In Week 6, that number plummeted to 10 touches and just 38 total yards.
That dropped his true yards per carry to 3.3 on the season, which ranks 52nd among running backs. Somehow, White has -27.6 expected points added this season which is 130th among skill players. It's especially shocking to see that low of expected points for White when you consider that his 17 red zone touches ranks 12th among running backs and Tampa Bay keeps feeding him in that area.
White has just been one of the most inefficient players in the league and now the touches are starting to diminish. Not a good combination.
Rachaad White’s RB opportunity share over the course of the first six weeks
Week 1 = 61%
Week 2 = 69%
Week 3 = 89% ?
Week 4 = 64%
Week 5 Bye
Week 6 = 58% ?
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 16, 2023
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
That's now two straight games with under a 50% snap share for Bateman in Baltimore. It's clear that Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Odell Beckham Jr. are playing ahead of him. It's been a sad, quick decline for a player taken in the first round of the 2021 draft. He and Lamar Jackson have never been able to establish a rapport on the field, and Bateman has missed too many games with injuries (more than 15 in his young career).
Perhaps the most discouraging thing about Bateman's play this year is the Ravens refuse to use him in high-leverage situations. He has one Red Zone target the entire year. Eight Ravens players have more.
At least we can say one thing about Bateman: he is consistent. He has drawn exactly three targets in each of his five games played this year. Sounds like a great pick if you play in a 16-team, four-wide receiver league.
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