It's that time of year again when the NFL season is upon us and we can possibly lock in some good value in NFL futures bets. A lot of the big value disappeared early last month as sharps pounded the openers, most of the futures I currently own are things I would no longer recommend buying because the price has changed. But we still have a decent chunk of time before the season starts and there's still some stuff out there which could be a decent bet. Let's take a look at the 2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds for the AFC East.
The vast majority of the books won't offer lines this good because of vig, which is how they make their money. In general, the more complex the wager, the higher the vig. A typically hold (profit for the books) for division winner bets is 10% but that ramps up to 20% when you look at what they charge for conference winner
As always, never bet without line shopping. While many of these lines will never be available, you'll be unlikely to get any of them if you only bet at one shop. Futures are especially good for line shopping because books can tend to offer dramatically different lines whereas they often find consensus on single games.
You should also beware of push rates, betting into lines like over/under 7 wins rather than o/u6.5 or o/u7.5 will result in a tie far more often than you'd ever imagine. Pushes on futures are terrible results and should be viewed as slight losses. They tie up funds that otherwise could be spent or invested. I will however state the obvious that if you find o7 and o7.5 both at -110 you should always take the o7.
All lines below are based on market consensus if you remove the vig and are thus theoretically the "break-even point" where if we placed that same wager in every possible multiverse then overall we'd break even. Things may obviously change between the publishing of this article and you reading it so keep that in mind as well. If Aaron Rodgers is out for the season, then you can rest assured that none of the lines for the AFC East will still be accurate and you can probably shade upward a bunch of the AFC Conference and Super Bowl Winner odds as well for other teams.
2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds - AFC East
We'll start with what is now a division of pain for this lifelong Pats fan from Massachusetts. What was once a walk in the park for the New England Patriots + a bunch of randos is now a very competitive division where the Patriots are now clearly the worst team. Oh, how times have changed. Other than New England, it's a really tough division with all of the other teams expected to have good records.
Buffalo Bills
2022 Record: 13-3 (12.9 xWins)
- Win Division +130
- Win AFC +520
- Win Superbowl +900
- O/U 10.5 Wins -140/+140
Not too much turnover. Diggs is now 30, which is typically when wide receivers begin to dramatically decline. But Buffalo looks prepared for this possibility with the emergence of Gabe Davis (whose numbers were hurt by injury last year) and drafting a tight end (Dalton Kincaid) in the 1st round.
On the defensive end, Von Miller is 34 and they lost Tremaine Edmunds who was an impact player on defense and I expect a decline in their ability to stop the other side from scoring. However, this is still basically the same roster as last year and that means their quarterback is still Josh Allen and it looks like he'll have a slightly improved offensive line this season with Connor McGovern brought in to replace Rodger Saffold.
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