2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds – AFC North

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds - AFC North

Welcome back to the 2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds series! In our previous edition, we highlighted the very competitive AFC East division.

It's that time of year again when the NFL season is upon us and we can possibly lock in some good value in NFL futures bets. A lot of the big value disappeared early last month as sharps pounded the openers, most of the futures I currently own are things I would no longer recommend buying because the price has changed. But we still have a decent chunk of time before the season starts and there's still some stuff out there which could be a decent bet. Let's take a look at the 2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds for the AFC North.

The vast majority of the books won't offer lines this good because of vig, which is how they make their money. In general, the more complex the wager, the higher the vig. A typically hold (profit for the books) for division winner bets is 10% but that ramps up to 20% when you look at what they charge for conference winner

As always, never bet without line shopping. While many of these lines will never be available, you'll be unlikely to get any of them if you only bet at one shop. Futures are especially good for line shopping because books can tend to offer dramatically different lines whereas they often find consensus on single games.

You should also beware of push rates, betting into lines like over/under 7 wins rather than o/u6.5 or o/u7.5 will result in a tie far more often than you'd ever imagine. Pushes on futures are terrible results and should be viewed as slight losses. They tie up funds that otherwise could be spent or invested. I will however state the obvious that if you find o7 and o7.5 both at -110 you should always take the o7.

All lines below are based on market consensus if you remove the vig and are thus theoretically the "break-even point" where if we placed that same wager in every possible multiverse then overall we'd break even.  Things may obviously change between the publishing of this article and you reading it so keep that in mind as well. If Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson suffers a season-ending injury, then you can rest assured that none of the lines for the AFC North will still be accurate and you can probably shade upward a bunch of the AFC conference and Superbowl winner odds as well of other teams.

2023 NFL Betting & Futures Odds - AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 Record: 12-4 (10.9 xWins)
  • Win Division +175
  • Win AFC +600
  • Win Superbowl +1100
  • O/U 11.5 Wins -140/+140

This is a good time to mention why I don't mention running backs too often. It's because I don't really factor them much into forecasting and thus they will often go unmentioned. You'll regularly find a pro bowler go down and then the guy off the bench puts up eerily similar stats. This is because most of their success is less about what they do but rather how well the team plays to put them in good running situations. Having said that, the Mixon allegations are wild and there could be a suspension incoming, but if you're going to lose a star player, you can't ask for a less impactful one to lose than the running back. I say this as someone who thinks Mixon is definitely above replacement level - it's just still not a big gap.

Burrows also seems to be fine, which is why the lines didn't flinch much on news of his injury. The real big news for them is snagging Orlando Brown from the Chiefs. The secondary did lose a lot of pieces but they weren't all that great to begin with and have their 1st and 2nd round picks from 2022 taking on a bigger role. Overall, I like this team a bit more than last year's version but unsure if I'm willing to pay the juice on that o11.5. I will be actively line shopping and looking for a good spot as the season nears and going to snap bet any win division offerings of +200 or better if they arise.

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