2023 NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks

by Keith Flemming
2023 NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks

In this article each week I'll give my favorite stacks for DFS football. Let's get right into my 2023 NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks.

I mentioned in my Week 1 NFL DFS Value Picks article on Tuesday about how we are flying blind from a data perspective during the first few weeks of the NFL season. We can look at trends from last year but so much changes from one season to the next, you should trust your gut with your plays early in the season.

Keep the conversation going. You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming where I love talking DFS with my followers. I am also on the Inside Drive on ESPN NW Florida Radio at 12 pm central time every Wednesday talking DFS football. Finally, you can find me on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel every Thursday night with Joe Matz, where we do a live NFL DFS show leading up to the TNF game, talking our favorite median and bargain tier plays for the upcoming week of NFL action!

2023 NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks

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Kirk Cousins (DK $6,300/FD $7,500)
Justin Jefferson (DK $8,880/FD $9,500)
vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Percentage of lineup salary (DraftKings 30%) (FanDuel 28%)

Let's start the season with what I consider a layup of stacking Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. This is easy to explain and I have relevant data to back this up. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson were a much better duo for DFS indoors last year than outdoors.

Kirk Cousins averaged nearly six more points per game in indoor games last season compared to outdoor games. This is with factoring that Cousins scored 3.2 measly points in an indoor game versus the Cowboys last year. He scored 18 points or more in nine of his other eleven games indoors and 20 points or more in seven of those games.

Justin Jefferson was also better in terms of DFS scoring in indoor games last season. He averaged 24.25 points in indoor games and 19.96 points in outdoor games. Jefferson also had a terrible outlier indoors versus the Cowboys where he scored only 4.4 points. The Vikings star receiver on DraftKings scored 32 points or more in seven of his other eleven games indoors last season.

I mentioned above there are not a lot of certainties early in the NFL season. I am confident that Cousins will look for Jefferson early and often in week one. They are facing a Tampa Bay defense that gave up the second most passing touchdowns in the league last year.

Brock Purdy (DK $5,400/FD $6,900)
George Kittle (DK $5,700/FD $6,600)
vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Percentage of lineup salary (DraftKings 22%) (FanDuel 23%)

George Kittle was a massive disappointment in Fantasy and DFS last year in the games before Brock Purdy was named the 49ers starting quarterback. Kittle was an entirely different player in the nine games with Purdy. He averaged over six targets per game, had four or more receptions in eight of nine, and scored a touchdown in six of those nine games together. Purdy and Kittle hooked up for multiple touchdowns in four of their nine games together.

The 49ers duo is playing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense in week one that had real issues covering tight ends last season. The Steelers defense gave up the fourth most passing yards, the fifth most receptions, and over ten yards per reception to tight ends last season.

Please note that George Kittle is currently questionable for week one with an undisclosed injury. Kittle worked off to the side during Monday's 49ers team practice. If Kittle is slated to not play this weekend, I would pivot to the stack of Sam Howell (DK $4,900/FD $7,100) and Jahan Dotson (DK $5,000/FD $6,100)

Triple Stack for Week 1

Derek Carr (DK $5,300/FD $7,000)
Chris Olave (DK $6,500/FD $7,300)
Michael Thomas (DK $5,100/FD $6,000)
vs Tennessee Titans

Percentage of lineup salary (DraftKings 34%) (FanDuel 34%)

This triple stack is partly due to how bad the Tennessee Titans were against the pass last year. It was so bad the Titans gave up the most passing yards in the league, nearly 500 yards more than the third most passing yards allowed. They also allowed the second most passing touchdowns and third most passing first downs in the NFL last season.

Derek Carr is now throwing to Chris Olave, who as a rookie was eight in air yards, third in air yards share, fourth in deep targets, twelfth in route win rate, and tenth in yards per route run. I believe the Carr/Olave could be a really special duo. Last season Davante Adams, in his only season with Derek Carr, caught as many passing touchdowns of 30 yards or more, as he did in his eight years with Aaron Rodgers.

I like including Michael Thomas to this stack of Olave and Carr. I understand the concern of Thomas staying healthy this season. In DFS you only have to worry about one game at a time.

Thomas played three games last season before breaking down. During those three games last season Thomas scored 51.1 points. He's had five or more receptions in seven of his last eight games played. I like this trio in a matchup at home versus a Titans secondary who was flat awful last year versus the pass.

Now that you have read the 2023 NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks article, be sure to check out my Thursday Night Live DFS Show, Joe Matz, at 7:15 pm EST on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel. Each week we will break down our favorite median and bargain tier plays for the main slate on Sunday. As well as talking about our favorite showdown plays for the Thursday Night Game!

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