It is Thanksgiving week and there are so many things I have to be thankful for. I’m thankful for my wife, my family, our three crazy animals, and the Fantasy Six Pack family. Before you eat Turkey or deal with your crazy family let’s discuss my 2023 NFL DFS Week 12 Value Picks.
This article will mainly be covering DFS Value plays for the main slate of NFL games Sunday. However, I can’t in good conscience give value plays this week without including a few from the Turkey Day Slate on Thursday.
For the Thanksgiving slate I want to give my favorite value #Draftkings play for each game.
Green Bay @ Detroit
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers $4.2k
Last week in this article I spoke about Jayden Reed being a true value play in recent weeks and he continued his fantasy production with his second consecutive 19-point performance on DK.
Reed has scored nine points or more on DK in four of his last five games. He’s seeing 4.6 touches per game in that span.
The Lions have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but they do have issues defending the pass. In consecutive weeks the Bears and Chargers both moved the ball with ease through the air.
I expect the Lions to score plenty of points in the game Thursday. Jarred Goff is a juggernaut indoors and the Lions duo of running backs are running all over the NFL in recent weeks. This means the Packers will need to score points to keep up and the best way for that to happen is through the air.
Washington @ Dallas
Logan Thomas $3.6k
I considered giving Brandin Cooks $4.5k from this game and do really like his upside this week versus an awful Washington secondary. The reason I went with Logan Thomas is how much more volume he sees than Cooks on a weekly basis.
In his last five games Thomas has been targeted 33 times with 4 or more receptions in all of those games. He’s scored points or more on DK in four of five with 7.1 being the least fantasy points he’s scored in a game in that stretch.
Dallas is one of the better defenses in the league versus wide receivers but has been vulnerable to running backs and tight ends in the passing game. The Cowboys are 18th on DraftKings versus tight ends. I expect Washington to be down and throwing often which is good for Logan Thomas.
San Francisco @ Seattle
Zach Charbonnet $5.3k
It appears Seahawks starting running back Kenneth Walker is going to miss the game Thursday. Walker is dealing with a significant oblique injury per Adam Scheffler of ESPN.
Zach Charbonnet has been eating into Walker’s snaps before the injury. For good reason considering Charbonnet is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per reception on the year.
The Seahawks rookie has scored double-digit points on DK the last two weeks. A big part of his success in fantasy is his usage in the passing game. In those games, Charbonnet has 10 receptions for 40 yards. That’s 14 points on DraftKings with its PPR format.
The Seahawks opponent San Francisco is a very solid run defense, but they have allowed fantasy points in recent games to running backs. Opposing RBs have scored a touchdown in three of the 49ers last five games.
2023 NFL DFS Week 12 Value Picks
Desmond Ridder, QB, Falcons vs Saints
($4.8k DK, $6.6k FD)
DESMOND RIDDER TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/nMIZHo2MKI
— Not Bijan (@InBijanWeTrust) November 12, 2023
Ridder has 7 full games played as the Falcons QB this season. In those games he’s scored 16.8 points or more in four of them. In those games Ridder is averaging 16.55 points per game on DraftKings.
With Ridder being priced at $4.8k on DraftKings and $6.6k on FanDuel he would only need to score 14.4/19.8 points in each site to hit that 3 times multiplier you want.
I love Quarterbacks who are involved in the rushing game. Ridder has four rushing touchdowns this season as he’s rushed for 150 yards. That is additional 39 fantasy points for a Quarterback who had 4 passing touchdowns in his last four full games played.
Another option: Baker Mayfield ($5.5k DK, $6.8k FD)
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Now that you have read the 2023 NFL DFS Week 12 Value Picks, be sure to check out my Thursday Night Live DFS Show, Joe Matz, at 7:15 pm EST on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel. Each week we will break down our favorite median and bargain tier plays for the main slate on Sunday. As well as talking about our favorite showdown plays for the Thursday Night Game!