This article included a top-5 DFS scorer at QB, RB, and WR last week. I am hoping to stay hot with my 2023 NFL DFS Week 3 Value Picks.
Week 2 Value Picks results from my article on @fantasysixpack via #DraftKings pts scored
D. Jones 34.74
Z Jones 0 ?
L. Thomas 10.2
Ferguson 10.10 #FantasyFootballAdvice https://t.co/T5LHOYZQeW pic.twitter.com/J9jVe9kg5O
— Keith Flemming (@KeithFlemming) September 18, 2023
Me and my cohost of the F6P DFS Live Show on Thursday nights, Joe Matz, have been strategizing for DFS together for years. In the last two years, we have learned to pay as much attention to a weak defense versus a particular position as we do to an offensive player's stats.
It's still too early to have enough concrete evidence to know what defenses are worst against the run, pass, etc. That doesn't mean you shouldn't try to figure out which defenses you want to have players facing in your lineups. Let's discuss the rush and pass defenses I think could be among the worst in the league this season, and worth attacking.
Pass Defenses to exploit?
This is a perfect example of how you need to look further into the numbers before making an opinion about a specific unit. In Week 1, the Chargers gave up over 400 yards passing to Tua and over 200 yards receiving to Tyreek Hill. Getting burned by the Dolphins when their quarterback and receivers are healthy is not an indictment on your pass defense as a whole.
Allowing Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans to go 20-24 for 246 yards and a touchdown is alarming. Especially in a game where the Titans trailed for most of the game until the final moments of the fourth quarter. Tannehill was able to move the ball well all day despite his best receiver Deandre Hopkins playing hurt and the Titans rushing attack only gaining 3.2 yards per carry. I expect the Chargers to struggle with the pass all season and love the Vikings passing game matchup versus them in Week 3.
The Titans gave up the most passing yards in the NFL last season. Through two games this year both Derek Carr and Justin Herbert eclipsed 300 yards passing. They are particularly struggling with wide receivers early this season. Their opponent's top two receivers through two games have 29 receptions for over 380 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
The most shocking fantasy outcome from Week 1of the NFL was Matthew Stafford and the Rams without Cooper Kupp passing for 334 yards. The Rams top two receivers caught 16 passes for 238 yards in that matchup. In Week 2 Goff and the Lions passing game went over 300 yards and had three scores. The Lions top two receivers combined for 11 receptions for 168 yards and two scores.
Run Defenses to exploit?
On Sunday the Rams were thrashed on the ground by one of the best run offenses in the league in the 49ers. CMC and Deebo Samuel rushed for 154 yards on 25 rush attempts. Week 1 the Rams allowed Kenneth Walker to average over five yards per carry but only rushed for 64 yards due to the Seahawks being down early. If the Bengals rushing attack has success in Week 3 versus the Rams it will grab my attention for sure. You don't expect a team with Aaron Donald to be bad against the run.
The Giants were ran on easily by Tony Pollard and the Cowboys in their Week 1 matchup. That is not surprising for a game that they lost 40-0. It's harder to give the Giants rush defense a pass this week when they allowed James Conner to rush for 147 yards on 26 carries and two touchdowns. I expect CMC to feast during his matchup with the Giants on Thursday Night Football this week.
The Bengals have allowed almost 400 yards rushing in their two games this season at over five yards per carry. This week the Ravens backfield of Justice Hill and Gus Edwards rushed for 103 yards on 21 rush attempts. The previous week that duo rushed for 41 yards on 16 carries versus the Houston Texans. The same Houston Texans that allowed the Colts to rush for 123 yards at almost six yards per carry on Sunday.
Keep the conversation going. You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming where I love talking DFS with my followers. I am also on the Inside Drive on ESPN NW Florida Radio at 12 pm central time every Wednesday talking DFS football. Finally, you can find me on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel every Thursday night with Joe Matz, where we do a live NFL DFS show leading up to the TNF game, talking our favorite median and bargain tier plays for the upcoming week of NFL action!
2023 NFL DFS Week 3 Value Picks
Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns vs Titans
($6.1k DK, $7.5k FD)
WOW, PICK SIX FOR DESHAUN WATSON TO START THE GAME AFTER A DROPpic.twitter.com/uwGcXoy2bV
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 19, 2023
Yes, I am giving the Deshaun Watson from the tweet above as one of my two value QB plays for Week 3. This play is all about the Titans and their struggles defending the pass. Last season the Titans led the league in passing yards allowed. They gave up over 500 more passing yards than 30 of the other 31 teams in the NFL.
The Titans are awful against the pass but very solid against the run. Last year they allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league as running backs averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. This season through two games they've allowed 126 yards on the ground on 44 rush attempts (2.6 ypc).
The Browns might have lost their star running back Nick Chubb in the Steelers game last night. This means it is more likely the Browns will need to throw to move the ball consistently on the Titans.
Another option: Derek Carr ($5.5k DK, $6.9k FD)
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Now that you have read the 2023 NFL DFS Week 3 Value Picks, be sure to check out my Thursday Night Live DFS Show, Joe Matz, at 7:15 pm EST on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel. Each week we will break down our favorite median and bargain tier plays for the main slate on Sunday. As well as talking about our favorite showdown plays for the Thursday Night Game!
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