2023 NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks

by Mike Lott
2023 NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks

The NFL season is finally upon us and it's time to showcase your football knowledge! The 2023 NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks article highlights the best bets to win, straight up, and then look weeks into the future to help make sure you don't waste a pick in the early weeks!

We will also highlight potential trap games that could be the one that knocks out the majority of players in your pool!

Last year, in Week 1, 18% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge selected Russell Wilson's Denver Broncos debut against the Seattle Seahawks - revenge game! They lost 17-16. 14% went with the Indianapolis Colts over the Houston Texans. They tied 20-20. 11% picked the Tennessee Titans over the New York Football Giants. They lost 21-20.

43% of entries lost in Week 1. This is not as straightforward as it might seem!

Even in straight pick 'em, five contests that were selected by over 90% of entries lost in Week 1 and that does not include the Titans-Texans tie!

2023 NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks

Become an All-Access Member to get access to the Award-Winning Rankings, DFS Projections, and more. Use promo code "F6PNFL" for 15% off!

If you are already a member, sign in.

Baltimore Ravens vs Texans (28% picked ESPN Eliminator)

If you’re looking for the biggest mismatch to start the season, look no further.  The Baltimore Ravens open up the season as 10-point favorites as they host the Houston Texans.

With Lamar Jackson signing the contract he was looking for, expect the distractions to no longer exist and he can go out and do what he does best Week 1.

Not only did Lamar get his money, he also got some new weapons to work with. Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers will be at his disposal, along with one of the best tight ends in football, Mark Andrews.

As exciting as that is, it’s the Ravens run game that might do the majority of the damage, as the Texans were torched on the ground last year, allowing nearly 3,000 yards rushing and 25 touchdowns. Coach John Harbaugh has declared J.K. Dobbins 100% healthy, which could make it a long day for Houston’s defense.

For the Texans, rookie C.J. Stroud will be making his NFL debut and they should be very excited about that. It’s just unfortunate that it’s coming against a Ravens defense that was top 5 in sacks last season and just always plays smash-mouth football.

Houston should ease Stroud into the game and lean heavily on running back Dameon Pierce. This could keep things close in the first half, but Stroud will be forced to make plays late in the game which could lead to turnovers and a Ravens blowout.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Colts (6% picked)

We get an AFC South showdown for Week 1 as the Jaguars head to Indianapolis to face rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and the Colts.

Jacksonville is a five-point road favorite and was one of the most exciting teams in the NFL last season as Trevor Lawrence took a huge step forward in becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the game.

Lawrence has one of the most stacked offenses around him, as Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram are all back, but Lawrence will also have Calvin Ridley to throw the ball to this season!

Jacksonville should put on an offensive clinic against a dreadful Colts defense that ranked in the bottom three last year, giving up over 25 points per game.

There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Anthony Richardson in his debut, as he’s going to be forced to carry the Colts offense without Jonathan Taylor, who will miss the team's first four games while on the PUP list. Not an ideal situation. Expect rookie mistakes and just overall poor play from Richardson and the Colts' offense early on.

Minnesota Vikings vs Bucs (10% picked)

Baker Mayfield is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback and this is essentially the same team that won just eight games last year with Tom Brady. Sure, the offensive line is now healthy and those eight wins were enough to win the NFC South, but that doesn't mean a Mayfield-led Bucs offense has any chance at keeping pace with Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson!

Brian Flores is making his debut as the Vikings defensive coordinator and while the talent on that side of the ball does not match the offensive talent, Flores is a proven defensive guru.

Minnesota is a six-point favorite and Tampa Bay's implied total is under 20 points.

Nick's Pick (@NickBSpencer) - Seattle Seahawks vs Rams (3% picked)

If you are looking to zig while your opponents zag in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks have got you covered.

The Seahawks get to take on the Los Angeles Rams at home who are likely to be missing their biggest offensive weapon, Cooper Kupp.

On the back of a Geno Smith career resurgence, the Seahawks went 2-0 vs the Rams last year, and with a 5.5 point spread, Vegas clearly expects more of the same.

With a projected pick percentage of just 3.1%, Seattle is a great choice if you want to be your pool’s contrarian and save Baltimore for Week 3 vs. the Colts (see below)!

Trap Game - Washington Commanders vs Cardinals (15% picked)

The Commanders are clearly the better team, and Vegas agrees with the seven-point spread, second-best behind only the Baltimore Ravens. But there is serious pressure surrounding this team this season and Terry McLaurin (turf toe) and Chase Young (knee) might sit this one out!

Vegas isn't always right by the way - Colorado (@TCU) was a 20-point underdog in College Football this past Saturday but pulled out a 45-42 victory on the road in Head Coach Deion Sanders' first game!

The NFL finally got Dan Snyder to sell the Franchise and Josh Harris has lofty expectations for his $6 billion purchase.

Ron Rivera could be coaching his final season and Eric Bienamy is under tremendous pressure to prove he was the mastermind behind the Kansas City Chiefs offense (not Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes) and the rightful heir to the Commanders Head Coaching position.

Sam Howell has the weight of being a Franchise quarterback on his shoulder pads and the defense has not lived up to expectations in recent years, despite big names and big investments.

On the other side of the field, the Arizona Cardinals are in a clear tank year, without Kyler Murray to start the season, no more DeAndre Hopkins and under a new regime with Head Coach Jonathan Gannon. There is absolutely no pressure to win, especially early in the season, with a roster full of guys looking to prove themselves. These guys are just going to go out and play football and it might turn into one of those first-round March Madness upsets!

At A Glance: NFL Weeks 2-4

Next week, we like the Buffalo Bills vs Raiders (also a Week 3 option) and the New Orleans Saints @ Panthers, part of the Monday Night Football doubleheader (also a Week 4 option).

Neither team was an option in Week 1 (Bills @ Jets, Saints vs Titans) which allows us to move on to Week 3 where there are a handful of games to choose from.

Let's assume for a second that you roll with the Ravens in Week 1 and Bills in Week 2, you can still choose pretty comfortably between the Jacksonville Jaguars (vs HOU), Philadelphia Eagles (@TB on MNF), Dallas Cowboys (@ARI), Kansas City Chiefs (vs CHI) and Seattle Seahawks (vs CAR) in Week 3.

As we enter Week 4, you can pick between the New Orleans Saints vs Bucs and San Francisco 49ers vs Cardinals, after rolling with the Ravens, Bills and Eagles to start the NFL season.


Check out more Fantasy Football content

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

F6P Badges Banner

Follow us on social media

f6p-logo-footer

A Six Pack of Fantasy Sports

Copyright © 2023 Fantasy Six Pack.