2023 NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 134-99 +12.66u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 29-31 -0.256u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

On Sunday there wasn't much available but we went 3-1 for +1.85 units.

Nice to turn things around after some recent losses. Also, not to toot my own horn, but I've been so impressed with the w/l record that I'm kind of sad to know that we'll finally cross over into 100 or more losses after tonight.

2023 NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Well at least of of these teams is good.

This one opened at BUF -9 and 46.5 and has since moved to -7 to -7.5 and 47 to 47.5. Limits are not full yet so we could still see a little bit more movement. Having said that, going from 9 to 7 is very significant so I would be very surprised if it crossed into -6.5. I would also guess that it will land on 7.5 instead of 7 so if you want to bet BUF and have access to a -7 then go for it.

EDIT: It appears to be mostly on -7.5 now.

I personally have BUF -1.5 in a teaser with New England which already got through so am really hoping they win by 2 or more and could possibly hedge out and bet some DEN ml (but I doubt it, as bad as BUF has looked at times, DEN is a pretty terrible team).

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2 comments

Marty November 14, 2023 - 1:04 am

Consider going back to tech

Reply
DFSx42 November 14, 2023 - 2:17 am

what makes you say that?

couple different ways to read this

the less likely version is:

1. wow you’re so talented you should go back to building sweet products everyone enjoys.

In which my response would be, “Why thank you, but that’s too kind.”

the more likely version I suspect is:

2. i tailed you tonight and lost some money and am upset

In which I would respond about variance and that over the long term these are going to be winners and that you should be exercising bankroll management. I’ve mentioned that we’ll probably have some -25 unit swings in the midst of this season so it would be a good idea to not wager more than you’re comfortable losing 25x over.

If it’s something else altogether then by all means let’s continue the conversation. Please tell me what specifically you meant and we can discuss it. Twitter would probably be more efficient though because the spam filters on this make live communication difficult.

Reply

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