Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 125-93 +14.06u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 28-30 -0.246u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
Monday was not good. While we had a respectable w/l going 3-3 in official bets and 1-1 in degen bets, due to vig and the fact we went 0-3 in 2u bets we lost units in both categories and went -3.5 units in official bets. This is also why it's important to track units rather than wins and losses. A lot of people sharing picks only share w/l record specifically to inflate win rates. It's also super easy to have a w/l record that looks good on paper but actually lost money overall. If you only heavy favorites it's very plausible to have a shiny 125-93 record where you've lost lots of money.
Even better is when some pick sharers just flip everything. This turns the vig into an asset. If we bet the opposite side of all our bets this year we would not be 93-125 -14.06 units but would instead be something like -25 units. This makes it appear more profitable than it really is and people think "if I just bet the opposite I'd be up 25 units" and not be aware that it's really just 14. Beware those scammers.
One of the main things those fraud pick sharers do is they don't show the record. Or they show you selective records. Like if they say "I'm 4-1 on MNF" or "We are 6-3 betting on away dogs" then they are clearly afraid to show the total record and just looking for the few profitable sections of the venn diagram to highlight. And more importantly, there's no model on earth that would have a larger edge on MNF or on away dogs than the rest of the games. If you made picks all year by flipping coins or throwing darts you too could look back at results and find you certain niches that performed better than others.
Also, most pick sharers don't keep accurate records. They know that the average person paying for picks is not going to do any accounting forensics to verify anything and thus a bunch of losers will not find themselves entered correctly or at all on the spreadsheet. They'll retweet their tweets of winners with cash emojis and ignore or delete their tweets of losers. Beware.
2023 NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
During the offseason, the NFL announced they would maintain a fluid schedule. This meant that they could move around the starting times of games to ensure that they could adapt the schedule based on performance and injuries to ensure better matchups happened in prime time. Either I completely misunderstood how it would work, or someone in the NFL is very, very bad at their job.
Today we have two absolute stinks of two teams with a combined record of 3-14 and a game both front offices are hoping to lose because they are already out of the running by the midpoint of the season. Just gross. Absolute waste of a primetime slot.
This one opened at Bears -2.5 and 41. It's since moved to Bears -3 but and anywhere from 38 to 39. Limits are wide open so we shouldn't see too much movement but eventually, the total will converge on probably 38 or 38.5 so if you like the under hit the few remaining u39s while they still last.
I thought I teased Panthers +8.5 but looking at my bets, I apparently didn't and just reviewing all my -110 teaser outs, I apparently missed the boat on that. So I have zero positions on this game as of right now.
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