Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 143-112 +4.57u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 37-31 +.59u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Last night we went 2-4 and lost all our big wagers for a disastrous evening losing over 6 units. This brings us down to up by only four and a half units on the year.
I still believe in the process. This was just natural variance and would bet those all again at heavy units if we could do it all over again. In fact, we lost 5.39 units on two wagers which were so far off market that we could have arbed them outright. However, since I only bet arbs when both sides are +EV, we are not counting the arbs in our records. We are trying to maximise EV, not bank a small win.
However, I will continue pointing out which props we like that are arbable for the less risk-averse among us. Staring down last night's 6 unit loss in what would have instead been a tiny profit had we arbed, it's reasonable to engage in the arb whenever it's available.
To add insult to injury, we went 4-0 on our 0.1 unit degen bets. Like I've said time and time again, it's much harder to tell how much EV is in a bet than it is to sort out which ones are +EV and which are -EV.
I also forgot to mention we had SEA -2.5 in Circa Millions, our only losing wager on the night. Super frustrating all around because we're in the running to be a top finisher for the this quarter so every little extra win is worth a lot to us. Still though, can't complain about a 4-1 week.
2023 NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
Finally, a good game between two good teams in a primetime slot. The 8-1 Eagles are visiting the 7-2 Chiefs.
This one opened at KC -3 and 48 and has since drifted off the key number to -2.5 and 45.5. Some 46 still exists right now but I imagine it ends on 45.5.
I currently have no positions on this game. The out where I had -110 teasers is now gone forever - RIP. But I will be actively looking to tease Philly here if I can lay my hands on a book that offers reasonable odds.
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