Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 141-108 +10.74u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 33-31 +.144u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
We went 5-4 last Thursday but still won 2.23 units because we won our 3-unit wager. We also went 2-0 in the degen category to finally get that group of wagers back into the positive again after a very long time in the negative.
Just want to address unit sizes for the millionth time. The sizings I give follow general guidelines based on how much EV I calculate for the wagers combined with the expected variance. IE a 70 yard receiving prop is much "safer" than a 1.5 reception prop because on one of those a single penalty/dropped pass/etc can determine the outcome whereas the higher volume stuff is less likely to be impacted by the outcome of a single play.
I do not do flat units for this system, however, it is widely known that it's far easier to tell if something is EV than to specify by how much so there are a lot of very smart people who advocate flat unit betting. Betting flat units will certainly reduce your risk of ruin but also cap your upside. Also, because I bet these for income (DFS & sports betting is literally my job) and these all have tiny limits, the stuff I personally have access to I just max bet. So whether I have .5 units or 3 units listed here, I'm still clicking max regardless, which is anywhere from $50 to $500 depending on the book. However, the 2+ unit stuff is the kind of stuff I contact people in other states and let them know about it so they can bet it on my behalf and we either chop it up 50/50 or I assume all risk and offer a tiny freeroll to them for placing the wager.
The degen bets are all +EV but generally of such a small amount that it's within the realm of possibility that they actually are not +EV. Much like how you hear about political polling being accurate within x%. They were originally included because in some games there are very few good props to bet so those are the next best options. I'm also including for academic purposes where you can see just how significant it is to bet 5% ev wagers instead of 3% ev wagers. The 3% pile is basically 50/50 and breaking even whereas the 5% pile is winning at a healthy clip.
Never take for granted a tiny edge. Vegas, with their billions in revenue each year is built upon tiny, 1% edges.
P.S. We're also seeing 3u wagers for the first time all season in recent weeks. I assure you this is not typical tout behavior and trying to "run it up" with arbitrarily large units. It's just we've seen some spectacularly bad lines last few games. If you see a 3u wager it's almost always something that is such a bad line it can be arbed at another book. Even then, most arbs are not worth 3 unit wagers as the unit sizing is based on EV alone not the ability to arb. If I have something fair at +100 and both sides can be hit at +101, while that's an arb where you should max bet both sides, neither would qualify as an official bet but would go into the degen pile because the EV of either bet would be so small.
2023 NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
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Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
This is oddly going to play out as an interesting game despite that it's an otherwise good team without a QB facing an objectively bad team. The Broncos have been able to sneak in a few undeserved wins this season and Minnesota has gone 2-0 since losing their starting QB. This is a game of two rotting corpses, but it should be close and there are plenty of soap opera-esque storylines to follow so shouldn't be a terrible game to watch with Mr. Unlimited vs a rocket scientist.
This line opened at DEN -2.5 & 43 and currently sits at -2.5 & 42.5 so it's barely moved at all. It's unlikely to move any further since we're so close to kickoff and we've had full limits for some time now. Fun fact, home-field advantage is usually a 3 point swing so the market feels these teams are very evenly matched.
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