2023 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 159-124 +5.66u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 43-33 +.972u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

Thanksgiving was an absolute slaughter, losing over 5 units and putting us in real danger of being back into the negative for the first time in months. However, we rebounded a decent bit on Black Friday to scrape back 3.46u by going 5-2.

Like I said a bunch of times, despite our great first half, we are still by no means a lock to be profitable by the end of the season and it wouldn't surprise me if we had -25 unit runs. That's just the nature of gambling with an edge so narrow we win 55% and lose 45%. The best in the world don't ever eclipse 58%, and frankly, most people think the people who claim those numbers are either lying or just don't have a sample strong enough to be valid.

We've won 159 out of 283 bets for a win rate of 56.2% so we're running perfectly along expectations of a profitable model. While our w/l record is solid, our unit w/l rate (the one that actually matters) is not good because we've run terribly on multi-unit wagers. With some back-of-the-napkin math, assuming average odds of -115 then we'd be up over 15 units had we been flat betting. A more conservative -120 would have us up over 10 units.

However, this is not negativity. I by no means expect "for things to average out" and we start losing. I fully expect us to continue winning at a 55/45ish clip. I also expect us to start running better in larger unit wagers. If I could bet against myself on a side market like 4casters then I would bet very heavily that we finish the year up over 10 units profit and would sooner believe we'd finish the year 15+ units rather than in the negative.

2023 NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

The 4-6 Chargers host the 8-3 Ravens in a game I'm very much looking forward to watching. Ravens are obviously good and I think the Chargers are deceptively good despite a losing record. I believe in that so much I've lost a bunch of money of them this year and have receipts to prove it 🙂.

This one opened at BAL -4 and 46.5 and has since moved to -3 and 48.5. There is some BAL -2.5 available, which as much as I love the Chargers, is probably really good value.

I have no positions on this game but will probably lose more money on the Chargers again tonight.

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1 comment

2023 NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football Prop Bets | Bears @ Vikings November 27, 2023 - 4:31 pm

[…] night was good, we went 7-4 to win nearly 3 units, making it so a good showing tonight can put us back up over 10 units profit for the […]

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