2023 NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 185-143 +13.665u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 49-41 +.704u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We had very little on the line last night with most bets being just half a unit. However, we still went 4-3 for +.76 units, which is nothing to complain about. We also continue to run hot on our degen bets going 2-1 there to bring us up to .7 units on the year. This is significant because that would be 7 units if we were betting full units.

I still stand by that degen bets are probably not going to be winners by the end of the year. I am not going to start endorsing them. They are always 1-2% theoretical EV, which is not even large enough for us to be sure they are even actually EV or not. It is my firm belief that we are running well above expectations on those.

Also want to address that there's been a lot of chatter yesterday about high-stakes cheating in LA home games with people talking about million-dollar losses to the cheaters. As I came up in the poker world, it was all through home games. It was widely known that it was incredibly easy for the host of a game to cheat if they so desired. Thus once stakes got big enough, they could make tens of thousands of dollars just cheating once or twice in an evening and never get caught. It made more sense for me to fly to Macau to play high stakes there in regulated environments than it did it to play at a home game for similar stakes which was a 10-minute taxi cab away.

Never play in home games for anything about 2/5 and only play with close friends you don't think would ever cheat you.

2023 NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This opened at JAX -7.5 and 40.5 and steamed heavily to -10.5  and 40.  10 is not nearly as big of a key number as 3 or 7  but the fact it's crossed 10 is still significant.

I have no positions on this game, but I really like Cincy at +10.5 which feels like a crazy high number despite no Burrow so I'll probably grab a piece or two of that.

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