2023 NFL Week 15 Saturday Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 15 Saturday Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 15 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 214-167 +22.18u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 58-52 +.047u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

On Thursday we somehow managed to go 5-3 for +2.925 units despite the game being a wild one that didn't go to script. I consider us very fortunate to have gotten a winning night out of that one as we usually lose piles when the unexpected happens because our system is based on going along with market consensus.

The degen bets continue their downward spiral, losing nearly all the profits they'd accumulated along the way. However, I've always been very upfront that these are not things you should be betting and expect them to be in the negative by the end of the season.

I also want to address that there's a lot of stuff where I don't know how to price it. To clarify, I probably could use Poisson and build out a model for a lot of that stuff and figure out a more accurate line for derivatives. However, although these often pop up each slate, it's usually just once or twice, the amount of money that I could wager on it is small, and there are just so many other better uses of my time. It's something I'll periodically revisit and if we ever get to a point where it's worth my time then we'll solve it, otherwise, it's just something that'll be eyeballed and put in the "don't bet these are for degens only" category.

On a personal note, I'm very excited about this week. Smaller slates are usually quite profitable for me in DFS so I'm really amped that this week is truly going to be broken down into several smaller slates. Should be more invested than usual this week as a result. It sucks because I'm on vacation, but this is the reality of working for yourself so I'll be spending a little less time out on the lake catching trout this weekend and a little more time running sims and projections and finding the perfect DFS lines.

2023 NFL Week 15 Saturday Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

Two 7-6 teams without their regular QB face off in what should be a close matchup between two lame teams.

This opened Bengals -3 and 37.5. The spread has dipped up and down a bit but finally returned to -3 but the total has just up to 40.5 with some 41s out there.

I have no positions on this game but lean towards Bengals and the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

And again, we unbelievably have two 7-6 teams playing their backup QBs in what should be a close game.

The Colts opened -1 and 39.5 and we've moved around a bit only to settle back at -1.5. Like with the early game, the total has risen quite a bit to 42 with a few 42.5s available.

I have a fairly large position on Colts not making the playoffs, which obviously looks disastrous right now so I'll be cheering heavily for the Steelers. As a Pats fan, I'm disgusted with myself, would rather be cheering for the Jets than the Steelers. Gross.

I'll be looking to tease the Steelers in this and also slightly prefer the over.

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions

Thank god we finally break the cycle as only one of these teams is 7-6. Those Broncos are hosted by the 9-4 Lions. Also, it's very nice to see that both teams have healthy QBs.

This one opened with Lions -2 and 45 and steamed heavily to -4.5 and 48 with a few 48.5s out there.

I do have some positions on this game but I really like the Lions. I do not believe in the Broncos at all and think they've been very lucky thus far. However, I also thought the Chargers were very unlucky and have lost piles on them this year. There's a good reason why I'm just sharing my leans and we're not officially using these. I bet into very few of my leans because while I may be a degenerate gambler, I also need to be profitable to pay the bills.

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