2023 NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 209-164 +19.255u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 56-48 +.204u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

Monday night went horribly. While we did go 8-8, we again managed to lose all the really important bets to finish -4.355 units on the night. It's disappointing to dip down below 20 units profit once again. But these dips are to be expected and it wouldn't be all that crazy if we still finished the year in the negative.

The degen bets went even worse, going 1-4 to evaporate over half the profits they've accumulated over an entire season. However, I stand by the fact that this is expected and frankly am surprised they are still profitable this deep into the season.

Sports betting is very swingy by nature. We've been rather fortunate to have fairly steady output without any prolonged downswings. But trust me, a profitable model can still have plenty of -50 unit swings buried within it.

Gun to my head, I would guess we finish the season about 25 units in the profit. So I'm still quite confident. But I'm fully aware that is not a foregone conclusion.

2023 NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

The 9-3 Dolphins host the 4-8 Titans. As bad as this game should be, it'll still likely be better than the other one simply because here we can watch a good offense at work.

We opened this with Raiders -2.5 and 34.5 and while the total has remained unchanged, the line has drifted in favor of the Raiders to -3. Jumping from -2.5 to -3 is somewhat significant.

I do have some positions on this game. I have a decent chunk of both Chargers ML and +3. If I find +2.5 somewhere with decent teaser odds then I'm going to tease the hell out of this one. I am absolutely convinced that the Chargers are a significantly better team than their record and performance indicate. Having said that, this belief has caused a lot of heavy losses this year as a result.

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