2023 NFL Week 16 Saturday Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 16 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 16 Saturday Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 239-195 +26.515u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 72-59 +.655u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We had an incredibly good night last Thursday going 7-3 for +6.865 units because we didn't just do well but also won our big wagers as well. Also did well in the degen category, which is so far up now that I think it's now quite unlikely it ends the season in the negative, as I had expected.

I still don't think you should be betting the degen category wagers. Not enough edge and if you got 100 people to make picks just by throwing darts at a board then quite a few of them would have gone 72-59 and some even much better. Simply looking at a record of a sample size less than a few thousand it's genuinely difficult to assign any real meaning.

But hey, we're up overall, and even if you've only been able to tail about 1/4 of these (a lot of these aren't widely available and go away fast) then you've very likely made a few units profit following this.

Last week I predicted that we'd finish the season +25 units. I am not adjusting that. We've run incredibly hot recently and prior Thursday were back under 20 units profit. We can easily dip plenty more. Having said that, outlook still positive. Each new slate brings on postive expectations. At this point I'd be very disappointed if we didn't land at 30+ units profit.

Happy holidays everyone.

2023 NFL Week 16 Saturday Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Opened at Ciny -2 and 38.5 and has since gone to -3 and 38 with a few 37.5s out there in the wild.

I'm personally on Steelers +3, and that is significant because I absolutely hate the Steelers and want nothing more than for them to lose this game by 2 or less. If this one dips to -2.5 again I'm going to tease the hell out of PIT +8.5.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

This opened at BUF -13 and 42.5 and has since moved to 44 with the spread staying the same.

I have no positions on this game and the Chargers are so beaten up and destroyed that I luckily will stop losing money betting on them believing they are a better team than their record indicates.

I have no positions on this game but lean Bills and over so could fire some there at exchanges like 4casters where it's essentially a vig-free proposition.

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