2023 NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 232-192 +19.65u (in twitter recap i had a +16.65 typo)
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 68-58 +.369u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

Thursday was very controversial. ESPN, which now has a sportsbook, released that Geno Smith was going to play. This shot the total up several points and decreased the spread dramatically. Then shortly before kickoff, it was announced that Drew Lock will instead be the starter.

This wasn't the end of the world from a player prop perspective. In fact, I even mentioned that it was still worth considering just blindly betting Geno unders because there was a good chance he wouldn't play the full game if he played. I also acknowledged that there was also a chance he didn't play at all.

However, before the news of Lock was announced, I saw all these much higher totals at various sharp books and then I saw the old stale totals at the pphs I have access to. So obviously went ham, betting all of them, 1Q, 1H, FT, TT, etc. And nearly all of them lost.

This is typical variance. This is why we use bankroll management. On paper, these were all fantastic bets full of value. But it was all based on incorrect information. Which will happen. And then there's also the random variance of any sports, especially one played with a lopsided ball that doesn't bounce in a straight line and can lead to wild things happening.

Overall, even with including all those overs, we still somehow won money, going up 1.135 units. However, when you're limited to $50 on player props and can get down thousands on totals, you really don't care too much about winning those $50 props.

2023 NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

This opened with Rams -2.5 and 42. We've seen quite a bit of movement on this one as it crossed the key number of 3 to go all the way to -4 and also up to 45 with some 45.5 and even 46s out there in the wild.

My guess is that without any major news it closes at 45 and -4 so if you like the under, go out now and grab those 46s.

I have no positions on this game at this point.

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