2023 NFL Week 18 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 18 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 18 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 263-221 +21.255u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 83-76 +.299u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

After a pretty bad holiday season, we finished on a very high note by going 5-2 for +4.175 units last Sunday.

The downward spiral that are the degen bets continued as we went 1-5 there to lose nearly all the accumulated profits thus far in that category. But like I said, you shouldn't be betting those anyway, they are labeled degen for a reason. I'm mostly just including those for tracking purposes and if you already had a lean then perhaps you can go with it.

If it's a player/narrative you like and wanted to bet on anyway, this could perhaps steer you in a better direction. For example, if you like a QB today and want to bet on him and there's only one over prop on him listed and it's in the degen category then that is without a doubt the best option available to bet on that guy even if the bet itself is not that great. This is because most available wagers are absolute trash and money pits.

While I have said many times the degen bets are all bets I believe to be +EV, they are by such a tiny amount that I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lost overall on the season. We are up slightly on them, which is probably a median outcome.

I previously said I was hoping for +25 units to close out the year, that was before we lost big over the holidays. But I was accounting for these swings and still stand by that end-of-season prediction. Mind you, we're including the playoffs because this is the "betting season" not the real-life season and it would be a terrible thing for me to do this through the regular season and then stop before the playoffs 🙂

Our degen bets have been falling off in an appropriate malaise that should induce feelings of sorrow.

But our regular bets are another story, these are the typical swings and you gotta learn to love them, otherwise, this will simply never be for you.

There's a new documentary out about this band that is supposed to be very good. I saw an older documentary on them and that was very interesting. There are a lot of layers to that group beyond their one-hit wonder.

2023 NFL Week 18 Saturday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

This one opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and 39.5. Since then we've moved to the key number of Pittsburgh -3 and the total has dropped even further to 34, which feels crazy to me.

Baltimore does not care about this game and they are resting their starters for the playoffs. Pittsburgh however is in a must-win scenario for their playoff hopes to come true. The uncertain nature of this game also means we shouldn't have too many bets on it, especially for the Ravens as most books are not even offering props on their players.

I currently have no positions on this game but that total feels stupidly low and will probably bet on the over. Even if the Steelers dropped back down to -2.5 I would not tease Baltimore simply because this is going to be a very volatile one with so much uncertainty that I don't believe standard Wong math applies to this game.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

This one opened at Indianapolis -2 and 47.5 and we've seen the incredibly rare line movement of switching favorites to Houston -1 while the total remained unchanged at 47.5

I don't have any positions on this game per se, but I do have a very large position on the outcome. Before Indy went on their big string of victories, I plopped down a sizable future on them to not make the playoffs at -200. So I'll clearly be rooting against them very hard today.

Having said that, if the line moved to Houston -1.5 then I'll put in an Indy wong of +7.5 as a +EV hedge. This total feels high, so I'll probably put down a small wager at a lower vig exchange on the under.

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