2023 NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 266-222 +23.605u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 88-79 +.463u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We had limited action on Saturday but crushed it going 3-1 to win 2.35 units. Also, just like magic, I do another explanation as to why the degen bets are not good to bet and of course, they have a decent showing as well going 5-3 to make +.165 units.

I am writing this immediately at the closing of the Houston game, which is a bit early for me. Since prop markets are often not released until the day of the event and the closer I write the article to the scheduled kickoff time the fresher the lines will be, I tend not to do much in advance other than just basic formatting and mentioning which teams are playing.

The reason why I'm writing now, on a Saturday night, instead of socializing, moping about the fact I'm not socializing, or grinding out more pressing overnight and Sunday morning wagers and DFS lineups is because today we ran incredibly well and I feel like that stuff needs to be acknowledged.

We had Stroud o263.5 and he gets exactly 264 yards. Also had Granson u23.5 and he got exactly 23. This is why it's so important sometimes to spend that extra minute seeing if o263.5 is available before betting o264.5. This isn't the only time this stuff has happened this season. I would conservatively estimate that about 3% of our wagers land on a number that if we got it one yard worse it would have been a loss instead and vice versa.

Yes, we got lucky. But we worked hard to find the best line in order for that luck to help us out. And importantly, the market was moving towards Stroud. If you bet it in the afternoon the o263.5 was still available. But if you waited until kickoff, the best line available would have been o266.5, which would have lost. Granson, being more of a fringe player, did not have such a consensus. In fact, at one book the line got worse to u24.5 but there were also some u20.5 and even a u14.5 out there  (I kind of regret not advocating for that middle now).

But also, it's not just finding the best line. There's also a ton of luck. Close to kickoff, I found a few bd lines and only had time to bet them and not tweet them out because I was busy betting myself and micromanaging my DFS lines. I would up having my 3 largest positions of the day be Houston alt team total u23.5, Singletary td & Collins td propfecta (these are usually terrible ideas but I sometimes do them if both lines are bad as this is a way to get around the micro limits on these), and my old wager of IND no playoffs - which was by far the largest wager.

Houston jumps out to an early lead in the 1st half with 14 points. I got the Collins TD already and this is good for my IND no playoffs wager, but u23.5 looks pretty toast, especially if we also got a Singletary TD which would give them 21 points. Houston then doesn't score for a bit so the team total starts looking better but now IND is the live favorite for the bet I really care about. Then with the game tied 17-17, I desperately want HOU to win due to my big no bet on IND. But if they get a TD that kills my tt under. I don't care about the propfecta at this point, because that's the smallest of the three wagers. In a perfect world, HOU kicks a field goal, plays shutdown defense and wins the game 20-17.

But of course, Singletary scores a TD. Something I would be celebrating, but it also just killed my u23.5. Perhaps the best kicker in the NFL, a man who never before missed a PAT is going to make it 24. But he somehow misses. Then IND runs the ball down the field, so now it's frustrating that while my team total and propfecta are both going to cash, I'm about to lose the big one, the one that's much bigger than both those combined. They are in the red zone, in a position to wind down the clock and 3rd and 2 with one of the better running games going. It looks like IND is going to win this and live odds put the game at a pick 'em with IND 45% to win.

Taylor gets stuffed a yard short on 3rd down. They pass it on 4th down, the receiver is open, but he somehow drops the ball. HOU grinds down the clock and the game is over. I ended up winning all 3 wagers, which I had absolutely no business doing. Winning the propfecta made winning the team total only 2% likely and then winning the team total only made winning the IND no wager 55%. Just wild and extremely lucky and fortunate for that missed PAT and dropped pass to keep me in a much better financial position today.

Remember these times. Keep them close. It's the only way to survive. Because, there are going to be plenty of times when I have Singletary NO TD, HOU tt o23.5 and IND YES playoffs.

2023 NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

This one opened at BUF -2 and 49 and after barely moving has settled at BUF -3 and 48. It is significant to go to -3 but otherwise, this is pretty much in line with the opener. Both teams have incentive to play and win this game so there aren't too many x-factors involved that ramp up variance more than usual.

I have no positions on this game but I lean towards BUF and the under. In fact, I ended up betting the under while writing this article.

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