Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 2 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
Full disclaimer can be found at the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting. I am confident that we'll be overall winners, however, there is no track record to prove that in this specific area and a lot of these, I'm not actually betting on myself because I don't have access to some of the lines published here.
While the lines are real, that means that you as well may not have access either and if you don't, please do not bet it at a lesser line unless I specify a specific spot to where I am comfortable hitting it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is necessary to confirm whether or not the value is still there and you could even find a better line than what I listed.
You can also follow me on twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official: 7-10 -6.43u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 3-2 +0.095u
We haven't seen the best results thus far but we're going to be accountable and own our genuine record. Had an -8u swing go against us on the final play Monday night losing both the no special teams TD and the u41.5-yard TD bets. Literally, anything but that punt return TD happens and we are 9-8 for +1.57u so I still feel very good about this overall. Besides, a 17-bet sample size is pretty meaningless. So onwards we go.
2023 NFL Week 2 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lines opened Eagles -8 with a total of 48.5
Since then the consensus total has edged up slightly to 49 but the Eagles are now only a 6.5-point favorite. The line moved from 8 to 7 over the course of two and a half hours on Monday and bumped down an additional half point this afternoon. The difference between -8 and -6.5 is very significant as it jumps the key number of 7. This is a sizable move.
Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (ribs) has been ruled out. The Eagles still have a trio of RBs to deploy -Â Rashaad Penny, D'Andre Swift and Boston Scott. Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat as well from the QB position.
However, it's important to recognize I don't know why it moved and thus it's dangerous to draw conclusions from that. It could be tied to the various injuries facing the Eagles on both sides of the ball, tied to sharps being heavy on the Vikings to lose by less than a touchdown, random noise that'll work its way back to -8 as we approach kickoff, or even due to syndicate line manipulation hoping to get down bigger at a better line.
However, limits have been at max levels for a while now, so it's unlikely we see much movement from here on out barring big news - which means if you can find a book somehow offering Vikings +7.5 or better without much juice that's worthy of consideration.
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