Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!
Full disclaimer can be found at the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 26-19 -0.43u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 7-7 +0.145u
Recap
Finally won a 2 unit wager on Sunday night. But we maintained the trend otherwise going 3-0 on our half unit bets and 0-3 on our full-unit ones. This brings up a reasonable point of discussion. Should we be flat wagering? If we were, then without a doubt we'd be positive units given our 26-19 record. I also have a friend, who's one of 3 guys I regularly communicate with about modeling who works on the book side of things. He's a big advocate of flat betting, mostly because it's hard enough to tell when you have an edge, and even harder to then be able to distinguish slight differences in edges to tell which are big and which aren't.
When I first began modeling for PGA h2hs, I decided I needed a minimum of 5% EV in order to action a bet. I then decided that a few ones that were silly high, like 20% EV should be bet much larger. It was an absolute disaster. The main reason for this was that if you differ from the market that much, you didn't find a killer edge, you actually screwed up and got a bad result. So I kept on working on the model until I almost never got anything above 10-15% edge. I also learned during this time, that while the model was profitable. I was not experiencing anywhere near the level of profit that my perceived edges implied I should be making.
So then of those bets, I looked over them all again. the 5-10% edge batch basically lost very slowly, like $100 wagered would net $99 back. The 10-15% edge batch yielded 2% ROI and the rare things above 15% were about 4% ROI. This was over a sample of about 3,000 wagers over a time period of over a year. This was also vs Pinnacle closing lines and netted a nice little profit. I clearly had something working, but it wasn't working like it was supposed to work. I could find the value, but I wasn't smart enough to know much beyond "this is value." If I did then the 5-10% EV would have yielded 5-10% ROI and so on and so forth.
What is my point? That this stuff is hard to be accurate upon and the more granular in detail we get with things, such as unit sizing, the more prone to mistakes we'll become. I do believe in my process and will continue advocating unit sizing. We are dealing with a meaningless sample at this point and I strongly believe in the long run we'll stop running as hot on the tiny bets but run a little better on the big stuff.
Having said that, it's perfectly valid to ignore the recommended sizings and just bet flat units.
2023 NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
MNF Game 1: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is fascinating because Tampa +5 is one of the most common picks this week in the Circa Sports Million. My entry does not have any positions on this game.
It opened at PHI -7 and 45.5 and currently stands at -5 and 44.5. A move from -7 to -5 is very significant because 7 is a key number.
Something of note in this game is the Week 1 starter Kenneth Gainwell is back, but D'Andre Swift had a monster game in his absence. So there's not too much clarity over how the Eagles will handle the RB rotation in this one. As a result, we see a lot of slight disagreements in the books for RB props with lines a few yards from book to book.
As it stands, they are treating it as if it's going to be split but with Swift getting slightly more work. If you get any information close to lock that this will not be the case, there are going to be good opportunities for those who are fast enough to act upon it. You always want to shop around, but even more so on this one because that o41.5 you bet could have been o37.5 if you just looked at another book.
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