Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!
Full disclaimer can be found at the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 22-16 -0.88u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 6-7 +0.045u
Recap
Once again we maintain a terrible record on multi-unit bets going 2-1 on Thursday. We won the .5u tiny value bets and lost the mega value Purdy o.5 int +215 for 2u for a slight loss overall. Feels like a lot of run bad where he threw 37 times and surely a hefty reason behind the long odds is the fact that was the first time he threw over 30 times in a game this season.
But I digress, the real reason I'm bringing this up is for a reminder of why you need to do some due diligence before tailing any of these. Earlier in the week, most books had a general consensus that fair was +180ish, meaning they were mostly offering +150 to +160 on him throwing an interception. Meanwhile, one book was out there hanging a +215. Usually, when one book dramatically differs from the market, it's likely a mistake. So I highlighted the bet and entered it into the record. Then on Thursday afternoon, I checked for new opportunities and saw that the market had shifted. They were now all out there offering +170 to +190. Even a few offering +200. While the +215 from earlier was still the "best option" - in the high-vig environment of props, that rarely means it's a good option. Most prop bets are vigged out too much to be worth betting.
So I quickly updated the article and put up a big disclaimer not to bet that one anymore. But then later in the early evening, the market had adjusted yet again and most books offered +150 now. This meant now if you could still find +215 then it was clearly a good line to bet. I caught this one. I will not catch the majority. I put in my bets, write the article, and periodically check up on it, but for the most part, I will be too busy running simulations or crafting DFS lineups to check them all and ensure they are all still valuable. View these articles as step one, something to show you good options to look for, and then it's up to you to find if it's still good value or not.
2023 NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders
An interesting one here as it opened as a pick 'em at 44. It's since moved to Vegas -2.5 with the vig heavily on the Vegas side. Limits are maxed right now, but it's possible the line continues to drift and we get to -3 or even -3.5 before kickoff.
Update: Few hours before kickoff and market still at +/-2.5 and o/u 43.5 - doubt there will be much more movement.
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