2023 NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

by Mike Lott
2023 NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

The 2023 NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks article highlights the best bets to win, straight up, and then look weeks into the future to help make sure you don't waste a pick in the early weeks!

The majority of us were smart enough to go the easy route with Buffalo, Dallas, New York and San Francisco in Week 2.

The Seattle Seahawks have now played spoiler two weeks in a row and could be the single source of double-elimination pools. In Week 1, they were upset by the Los Angeles Rams and this past Sunday, they upset the Detroit Lions, who were coming off a Week 1 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Very rarely will we suggest a Thursday Night Football game, but let's face it, the New York Giants could easily be 0-2 and the San Francisco 49ers are arguably the best team in the NFC (sorry Eagles/Cowboys fans). The Niners at home against a team that after six quarters to start the season was trailing their opponents 60-0, and now will play without Saquon Barkley on Thursday night. Sign me up (if you didn't use them last week against the Los Angeles Rams).

2023 NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

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If you're hoping a good portion of your survivor pool will be eliminated in Week 3, it's likely not going to happen. Unless the contestants in your pool are trying to be too cute, Week 3 looks like an automatic win for everybody and you can go many different routes to ensure you survive and advance.

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals

Let's start with the best team in the NFL over the first two weeks, the Dallas Cowboys. They go on the road to face the 0-2 Arizona Cardinals, quite possibly the least talented team in the NFL, who not to mention have no intention of winning games this year. The Cardinals will be coming off a blown 20-0 halftime lead against the New York Giants.

In two games the Cowboys have annihilated both teams from New York - the Giants and Jets - outscoring them 70-10. Micah Parsons is making an early case for defensive player of the year, as he already has three sacks and a forced fumble. He is a complete game wrecker and Arizona won't know how to stop him from getting after Josh Dobbs and disrupting a pretty lackluster offense to begin with.

The Dallas defense held both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook to under 10 rushing yards, so their front seven will look to shut down James Connor in this one.

Dak Prescott has been playing some really good football to start the year, completing 71% of his passes and has yet to turn the ball over, while being sacked just once.

Arizona just had Daniel Jones throw for over 250 yards in just the second half against them, so get ready for a huge day from Ceedee Lamb, who has 15 catches for 220 yards on the year. You can also expect him to score his first TD of the season.

The Cowboys are 12.5 point road favorites. They've won their first two games by 40 and 20. It would be shocking if they don't win this by three touchdowns minimum.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears

Next on the list of blowouts in Week 3, we have the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Chicago Bears. The Chiefs are 13.5 point favorites at home this week.

Kansas City is coming off a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, where the defense absolutely dominated Trevor Lawerence. Can we say welcome back Chris Jones? Jones had one and a half of the teams four sacks on Lawerence, and the Chiefs made him fumble twice, losing one of them. The secondary for Kansas City held Calvin Ridley in check all afternoon as he had just two receptions on the day.

Speaking of players who are back, Travis Kelce returned after missing Week 1, and of course, found paydirt. Kelce should be near 100% against the Bears, which will only help Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs passing attack really find its stride. Kansas City has scored just 20 and 17 points through the first two weeks, but the Packers hung 38 on the Bears and then the Bucs followed that up with 27, so anything less than 30 from KC would be a shock.

The Bears are coming off their second straight double-digit loss to start the year, and Justin Fields seems to be playing himself out of a job. Fields has completed 60% of his passes, been picked off three times and sacked 10 times already. His QBR sits at 23.0.

The offensive line has really struggled to keep Fields on his feet, and they've done a really bad job helping create holes for the run game. The Bears have no identity in the run game. Fields is tied for the team lead with 62 rushing yards and the team doesn't know if they want Khalil Herbert to be the lead back, or turn it over to rookie Roschon Johnson. Chicago is a mess.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

You can always count on the Houston Texans to get your team right, and luckily for Jacksonville, this will be a bounce-back week after coming off a rough loss to the Chiefs, as mentioned above. The Jags are 9.5 points favorites at home this week.

Houston has given up 28 points per game so far and has allowed six touchdowns on the ground. Is this going to be the Travie Etienne breakout game? Last year Etienne ran for 179 and a touchdown on just 19 carries over two games against Houston. So all signs point to yes.

The Texans have tried over the first two weeks to establish the run game and it has been a disaster.  Despite trailing by double digits most of the season, Houston has run the ball 49 times for just 124 yards. That's 2.5 yards per carry. Not only are they struggling to run the ball, the offensive line can't protect their rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, as he's been sacked 11 times over the first two games of his career.

After a poor performance against the Chiefs, this is a week you have to imagine Trevor Lawernce gets back to playing quarterback at a high level. Over the first two games, he's had strong connections with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, and it's hard to imagine they both don't have big games against this Houston secondary.

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

The Baltimore Ravens were the most popular pick in Week 1 against the Houston Texans, but if you did not use them, they are 7.5 point favorites at home against the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson is still in concussion protocol and Indy might have to roll with Gardner Minshew in this one.

At A Glance: NFL Weeks 4-6

Next week, there are once again a handful of options so don't be afraid to take your favorite in Week 3. We are already looking forward to picking the 49ers (-12.5) vs Cardinals, Eagles (-8.5) vs Commanders, Cowboys (-6) vs Patriots, Chiefs (-6) @ Jets and Steelers (-3) @ Texans,

As we enter Week 5, we hope Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are firing on all cylinders and should easily win, on the road, against, you guessed it, the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 6 offers multiple gimmes with games like the Dolphins vs Panthers, Rams vs Cardinals, Bills vs Giants, Eagles at Jets and Saints at Texans.


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