Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
Full disclaimer can be found at the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 20-15 -0.13u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 6-5 +0.26u
After a horrendous start losing some multi-unit bets, we've finally crawled back upwards to respectability. But I also think it's important to look at a 20-15 record and notice we're actually slight losers overall and that's why it's so important to not simply just look at wins and losses but also profits and losses as well. Having said that, had we been flat betting then we'd be in the positive. It's just that we've run terribly on the few 2u bets we've had.
I also want to mention that on Monday we had Williams o53.5 for half a unit and another full unit on Chubb o79.5. These were our only two losses on the night and turned a 5-0 +4.2u night into a 5-2 +2.5u one. I'm pointing this out not to complain about "bad beats" but rather point out that I'm grading everything honestly and just because a few major sportsbooks did refund those two losses, most didn't (nor should they) so we are going to count refunded bets as if they weren't refunded whether or not this helps or hurts our cause - this includes the times when the specific line we liked was available at books which refunded the bet - even if it were only available at a book which refunded it.
A personal note on refunds. It has seemingly consumed gambling Twitter and a few sportsbooks are doing it as a marketing expense. But I assure you, it's never in your interest in the long run for them to do refunds. What will happen if this becomes the norm is the risk of a refund will get priced into bets and that'll mean more vig. More vig will mean it'll be harder to win overall. It's better to eat a few losses due to variance (and don't forget we also benefit from injuries other times as well). And if not through vig, then they'll pay for it through other means like limiting winning players that much sooner. I see way too much Twitter chatter about people saying they will only bet at books that offer refunds - this is not the way. You should be line shopping without brand loyalty. Also, getting refunded in bonus bets is nowhere near the value of getting back your money. Bonus bets are not worth 1:1 to real dollars for a variety of reasons. Perhaps we can dive into why those are deceptive in another article at another time.
2023 NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
This one opened at SF -10 and 45.5. Limits are still quite low as we're still in the process of true line discovery. Most books are offering -10.5/-11 and 45/46 for lines. There should be more movement as we get closer to kickoff.
Update 9/20 Line is now SF -10.5 44.5. We're still not quite at full wager limits yet so it could get nudged a little bit before then but I imagine we'll probably close around this unless there's major news prior to kickoff.
UPDATE: Total has since nudged down to 43.5
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