Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!
A full disclaimer can be found in the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Monday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 47-34 +3.67u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 11-9 +0.326u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap:
I said the bad swings would happen and they came in a with a vengeance on Sunday night. We went 5-8 for -6 units and once again continued the trend of losing both 2-unit bets and of course we win our lone half unit one. Possible karmic adjustment because I made a special point of how insane it was you could get Cobb u1.5 receptions for -120 and sure enough he goes out there and bangs in 2 receptions. I was so confident on that I even brought in an entire dance routine pointing out how terrible that line was.
This was the first time in the history of Pat Mahomes' career that he had fewer completions, passing yards, touchdowns, & interceptions than the opposing QB. That QB was one who was viewed so poorly that his completion total was at 16.5 when that's typically around 20-22 for every other QB.
It was a wild variance game, and when we run a system that pounds market outliers, we're probably not going to be sitting pretty at the end of it when things do not go according the to script. We need games to run to expectation in order for this to work. Again, not complaining or anything etc as most games have played out to expectation and thus why we're still up 3.67 units on the year. The volatility of all of this is baked into everything. Just saying that we're going to have more nights like this in the future along with those winning nights so buckle up and don't be more than you're comfortable losing 25 times over.
It's also key to remember, that I would make all those same bets all over again. Especially the Cobb u1.5 rec -120. That's a bet I would have put thousands upon thousands of dollar onto if it were possible. I was even messaging people throughout the day asking them to check their outs and see what they found on Cobb u1.5. Fortunately for me, the best Cobb u1.5 line I could get was -165 and not the mythical -120 so it was no action for me personally.
Despite Cobb getting 2 receptions in this game, it was still an absolutely terrible line and just happened to be the kind of game where it was possible. 10 out of 10 would hit it again if I had access.
Also, I strongly disagree with all those complaining about Mahomes' slide and calling foul. It was the correct play. Getting the touchdown does make it a 2 point game. As unlikely as it was for the Jets to score two touchdowns in 30 seconds, it was a non-zero probability whereas kneeling the ball to end the game is a 100% outcome.
Also, there's a thing I want to mention. Just because you have a different or cheap line doesn't make it value, it's just a better line. If most books offer -115/-115 and you find -110/-120, the implied fair line is still +100. There could be many reasons for liking it at worse than -110, but simply based off the market, paying -110 is a bad deal despite being better than -115 because you "should" be paying +100 to break even.
You will especially see this in the higher variance stuff like touchdown props. As someone who isn't originating, I'll be shocked if I ever put in a touchdown bet here despite that you can get +200 on one book and +350 on another for the same player. IMO neither are worth hitting because they are vigged up so much the actual fair line is still about +500. You also see this a bit in yardage props. For D.K. Metcalf, you can get bet him anywhere between 65.5 and 72.5. Neither side is worth betting imo and that's also too narrow a gap to reasonably expect hitting a middle. If you're going to be bet him, you'd be a fool to not hit the 655 for the over or the 72.5 for under - the simple existence in those different lines doesn't automatically make either valuable.
Player props are generally very high vig propositions. There's a reason why a lot of books will often only let you bet one side and it's because they would lose their shirts offering the other side because the yes side they offer is so terrible. I don't want to reveal too much about my process, it's something I spent ages learning, working, testing, and refining. It is quite simple, but it absolutely is a bit more complex than "65.5 here and 72.5 there or the dreaded "he's gotten 112, 75, & 47 yards to he's 2-1 for covering the over and we're going to bet the over again tonight" that will get you broke real fast.
2023 NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Opened at SEA -2 and 44.5. It's since moved to 47 or 47.5 depending upon the book. We're also seeing lines anywhere from SEA -1.5 to -2.5 but so long and they don't cross the 3 it's not super significant. It is somewhat surprising seeing 47 and 47.5 this late in the game as limits are fully opened up at the time of this writing.
I personally own some SEA pk and SEA -1 shares. This is not a recommended bet, I'm just always going to state my position if any when I'm writing up about the game. I have no perceived edge in mainstream NFL markets. I would not be shocked in the slightest if I were down overall betting NFL sides and totals.
Was a rough week in Circa Millions. It's fairly results-oriented, but not picking the Jets definitely feels like the wrong move. We were among the higher-ranked entries going into this week and with a 1-3 showing (quite close to going 0-4) we've surely slipped down into the heart of the bell curve. I won't be mentioning our picks much unless they are directly related to the specific games I cover here. Having said that, we do have the Seahawks in this one so I'm obviously going to be rooting for them to pull through. Also, fwiw, I'm strictly a junior partner in this with a minimal share who plays a minor - if any role in the process.
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