Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!
A full disclaimer can be found in the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 42-26 +9.67u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 10-7 +0.455u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Last time I went on about how we're going to face a lot of swings. I even promised at some point in the season we will have a -10u downswing. This was all in regards to unit sizing and simply explaining that you should not be wagering what you'd be uncomfortable losing x25. IE if you would be in a world of hurt, either mental or financial from losing $1,000, then you should not be wagering more $40 a pop.
Karma did come around though. All that doom and gloom and sure enough we capped off a +10u upswing of our own and are now firmly into the positive after a pretty brutal stretch to start the year. In all reality, I think we should be doing a lot better. We've lost multiple units on individual flukish plays. Sometimes that'll happen in our favor so not complaining, just pointing out that we've probably run worse than expected despite the stellar record.
Having said that, the record above is not real. Very few people, if anyone is going to be able to make a lot of these bets. For example, at least once a week I personally killed a prop by betting into it before writing it down here and they then moved the line to where it's no longer good so I can no longer include it. There are many other props here that I personally don't even have access to and thus don't bet. So again, hit what you can but don't ever take a look at that 42-26 record and start believing for a second that we can start hitting these at lesser lines. We absolutely can't do that with profitable expectations.
2023 NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
If you've read my stuff before, you know I'm originally from Mass and thus can't stand the Jets. Even their uniforms are gross in my opinion. But money and math have no silly allegiances and we strongly considering picking them to cover in our Circa Millions entry. We probably won't, and I'll be glad if we don't so I can root for them to lose by 50.
This one opened at Chiefs -9 and 42 and has barely budged at all, settling in at -8.5 and 42. It's half-limits, so very possible a big syndicate is waiting for that to open up before we get to the final line. I can't imagine it'll move much further though.
Also, I do not subscribe to the Travis Kelce touchdown for Taylor Swift narrative. It's catchy and will get discussion, but there's no evidence of it in the game log. Mahomes threw over 10 times inside the 30 before finally targeting Kelce. He didn't target Kelce inside the red zone in the 2nd half until his 4th red zone pass. Kelce got a total of 2 red zone targets out of 12 total, which is actually worse than his typical targeting percentage in the red zone. They are there to win the game. Pat is throwing to whomever is open. That'll often be Kelce, but he's not getting any passes with Taylor in the stands that he wouldn't get otherwise. It's another myth, just like the check-down options and tight ends get more looks by backup QBs. That's true for some backup QBs, but not for all - just like it is for regular QBs.
While we are strongly considering Jets in the Circa Millions. I also have Chiefs in two separate Wong teasers. One with the Ravens and another with the Dolphins. I'm a lot like Mac, not the one who destroys my dreams every Sunday, the one who is on It's Always Sunny.
UPDATE: We did not end up picking the Jets in Circa Millions (but kind of think perhaps we should have). Also, my significantly sharper friend pointed out a multitude of reasons why it was a bad decision to pair the Chiefs with Dolphins and Ravens. Chiefs are fine to tease, those other two are not. So I guess I'm also like the Mac of ruined Sundays as well.
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