2023 NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

by Mike Lott

The 2023 NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks article highlights the best bets to win, straight up, and then look weeks into the future to help make sure you don't waste a pick in the early weeks!

More than 40% of ESPN and Yahoo survivor pools picked the Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Texans), Dallas Cowboys (@ Cardinals) or Baltimore Ravens (vs Colts). I hope that you play in a double-elimination pool (and didn't pick the Seahawks or against the Seahawks in Weeks 1 & 2).

The Philadelphia Eagles, on paper, have a nice matchup with a divisional rival in the Washington Commanders and the line opens at seven points. However, these two NFC East teams have split their last six contests and the total scores are Philly 123, Washington 120.  Plus, if you can hold off on using the Eagles, they get the New York Jets in Week 6!

2023 NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

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Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets

In what might be the biggest mismatch at the quarterback position in the history of the NFL, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs get to embarrass Zach Wilson and the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. This past week, the Chiefs completely dominated Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears, and it should be more of the same on Sunday night. The Chiefs are 9.5-point road favorites and that number might climb as the week goes on.

Let's be honest, the Jets are a dumpster fire. There was so much hype around this team during the offseason, everyone loved what they watched on HBO Hard Knocks, but that all came to a crashing halt when Aaron Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury early in the first Monday Night Football game of the year.

Zach Wilson is not good and we're all waiting for the Jets to address this issue. However, it appears that they will continue to roll him out there again this week, despite the offense looking worse and worse with him under center.

The Chiefs defense should have no issues holding the Jets to under 20 points this week, as they have shut down the Jaguars and Bears in consecutive weeks, allowing just 19 points over those two games. The Jets have scored 10 points in each of the last two games.

We should see a lot of Patrick Mahomes on the field as Wilson and the Jets cannot sustain lengthy drives, and currently have just 37 first downs over their first three games, compared to the Chiefs 67 first downs. A lot of quick three-and-outs means the entire country gets to watch Patrick Mahomes work his magic on offense quite a bit.

Speaking of the Chiefs offense, they finally got it rolling against the Bears, as they put up 41 points and looked unstoppable. Travis Kelce has scored in both games he has played now, and being that the game is in New York, I imagine we'll get a Taylor Swift sighting!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans

I know many people were not high on the Pittsburgh Steelers entering the 2023 season, but it's time to start believing in this team. They have won back-to-back weeks now, and things are starting to click offensively and defensively after a brutal Week 1 loss against the San Francisco 49ers. The Steelers are three-point road favorites.

There's a lot to love in this game for Pittsburgh. For one, the Houston Texans cannot protect rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Yes, he did not take a sack this past week in a win over the Jaguars, but to be fair, the Jags stink. In his first two games, Stroud was sacked 11 times! Do you know which team leads the NFL in sacks over the first three weeks? That's right, the Pittsburgh Steelers with 13. T.J. Watt has six of his own, with two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. I'm actually nervous for what Watt might do to Stroud this week.

As long as Watt and the Steelers front seven put constant pressure on Stroud, it should make it difficult for guys like Tank Dell and Nico Collins to get open down the field like we saw them do against the Jaguars multiple times. However, I don't see that happening against Minkah Fitzpatrick, Patrick Peterson and the rest of the Pittsburgh secondary.

Despite the early struggles to run the ball, I applaud Mike Tomlin for sticking with the game plan and not shying away from Najee Harris. He might not be as explosive as we anticipated he was going to be a few years ago, but he's a strong runner and can tire out a defense when he's getting close to 20 carries a game. Jaylen Warren is a nice change of pace and has seen his role increase each week, and he's an important part of the Steelers passing attack. I think both Harris and Warren can have a big day against the Texans, which just makes Kenny Pickett's job easier. We could see multiple deep connections with George Pickens and Calvin Austin III as well.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Chargers are 5.5-point favorites at home against their divisional rivals and coming off a historic win over the Vikings, where we saw two of the best offensive performances in NFL history.

Justin Herbert is proving why he's one of of the best QBs in the game, completing 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns. One of the most incredible parts of this was that the Chargers couldn't move the ball on the ground, so they totally abandoned the run game, and Herbert was still able to complete 85% of his passes with the defense knowing what was coming.

Of those 40 completions, 18 of them went to Keenan Allen, who went off for 215 yards, and although he did not catch a touchdown pass, he did throw a 49-yard touchdown pass to Mike Williams.

Speaking of, sadly Mike Williams tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

Time for first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston to step up! There also is a slight chance that running back Austin Ekeler returns from injury, which would be a huge boost to this team.

Las Vegas is coming off a 23-18 loss to the Steelers, a game in which Jimmy Garoppolo threw three interceptions. Outside of Davante Adams, the Raiders are really struggling to get anything going offensively. Josh Jacobs has been a major disappointment for Raider fans and Fantasy managers, as he has 45 carries for just 108 yards - 2.4 yards per carry - yikes! If the run game isn't going to be there, then it's going to be a long year for this Raiders offense, and their defense simply isn't good enough to win them games.

This is a get-right game for the Chargers defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Hopefully, you avoided the Cowboys last week, in what should've been the lock of the week. If you can take them this week, then do so. I love this matchup for Dak and the Cowboys. Dallas is a seven-point favorite in Week 4.

We're going to call the Cardinals game a fluke because that's really what it was. After giving up a combined 10 points to the Jets and Giants, a Josh Dobbs-led offense dropped 28 on Dallas. Really? Despite Micah Parson and DeMarcus Lawernce both recording a sack, the Cowboys front seven really struggled to get a good pass rush going and put pressure on Dobbs.  I expect a heavy rush against Mac Jones and the Patriots offense who have scored 20, 17 and 15 points over their first three games.

Dallas offensively looked good against the Cardinals, they just could not finish drives. CeeDee Lamb was visibly frustrated on the sidelines in the second half, as he only had four catches for the game. Have to imagine Mike McCarthy will figure out how to get the ball in his hands more often against the Pats. Their run game was strong as usual, Tony Pollard had 122 yards on the ground and Rico Dowdle added 46 yards total yards, including a reception touchdown. They should be more than fine against New England this week.

Is this the Ezekiel Elliott revenge game? I doubt it. I think it's going to be a mission for the Cowboys defense to shut Zeke down, and they should do the same to the rest of the Patriots offense.

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa. Need I say more?

At A Glance: NFL Weeks 5-7

Next week, we are already looking forward to picking the Dolphins (-6) vs Giants, Lions (-6) vs Panthers, Bengals (-8) @ Cardinals and Chiefs (-4.5) @ Vikings.

Oh, don't forget, bye weeks begin!

Week 5 Byes - Browns, Bucs, Chargers, Seahawks

As we enter Week 6, we present to you a rare Thursday Night option when the Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5), if still an option for you, host the Denver Broncos! Otherwise, as mentioned in the intro, the Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) head to Jersey to play the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins (-7) host the Carolina Panthers and the Buffalo Bills (-7) welcome the Giants to upstate New York on Sunday Night Football.

Week 6 Byes - Packers, Steelers

As it stands right now, Week 7 is going to be the toughest challenge we have faced all season.

Week 7 Byes - Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans, Titans

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