Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
A full disclaimer can be found in the intro to my Week 1 TNF article.
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case then don't bet it at a lesser line.
You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. Remember, I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.
I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 32-22 +2.57u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 8-7 +0.255u
We went 6-3 for +3u to finally get us back into profitability. All this despite that once again we lost the only 2u wager of the night. I think offhand we are only 1-5 for those, hence why we are barely up on the year despite a 32-22 record.
We lost that Puka o72.5 bet by half a yard as he got 72. This is going to happen often enough that it really matters. It drives me crazy how so many people are indifferent about a line being 72 or 74, it will matter at times, so it should matter to you.
I spoke last time about flat betting having merits in terms of lowering risk and that I only put up units to show how much theoretical value there is. For what it's worth, when one of these is available to me personally, I just max bet it regardless of unit sizing.
That's not a flex, just limits are low on these things and you can usually only get down $100 to $250 on the majority of them and it's a lot easier for me to just hit it as such rather than calculate that I should instead by wagering $137 instead of the full $175 it will allow.
I'm also not advocating you wager the max either. There's no shame in being a $10 unit bettor. A good rule of thumb is not to look at what we're going to win, but what we're going to lose. The reason why a unit is traditionally 1% of your bankroll is because we're going to have a lot of negative swings. We aren't originating, so that significantly reduces the variance, but I've had winning models regularly have -50u swings. Mind you, this is not special accounting, these are winning models overall even when including that I'll occasionally had -50u run mixed in occasionally.
Luckily for us, this is all based on market information. So our risk is a lot lower. I don't expect 50u swings. But we could easily have 25u swings and without a doubt will have at least one -10u swing this season. So don't be more than what you're comfortable losing 25 times in a row. I don't have that luxury though. If I had a 9-5 I would be betting smaller, but getting 2% ROI on $10 units won't pay the rent. I have no choice but to take big risks.
2023 NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Opened at Packers -1 and has since moved to Lions -1 or -2 depending on the book. It's not really a significant move at all if you never cross the 3. However, it did open at 42.5 and that has moved up dramatically to 46. We could still some more movement as limits are fully unleashed at the time of writing this. But unless it hits or crosses the 3 it doesn't matter much.
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