2023 NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case, don't bet it at a lesser line.

You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. It's important to note that I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.

I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 54-44 -2.07u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 14-16 -.107u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap:

Sunday was a brutal night. As I've said quite often, top-down approaches based on market consensus will always have disastrous results on nights that don't go to script. A massive blowout where all starters get benched early on a game with a 3.5 spread is never going to go according to expectation.

We had a disastrous night going 2-7 -6.16u in the official bets and 0-3 -.359u in the degen category. That was brutal. Frankly, I'm feeling a bit snakebitten looking ahead to Monday night. This game is supposed to be close as well but unlike the Niners and Cowboys, these are two bad teams. Therefore, I think there will be a lot of variance in outcomes of this one despite the narrow spread.

However, we're still sticking with the program. We'd be firmly in the positive overall if we were flat betting. 54-44 betting into mostly -115 lines is quite significant and we've just run super bad in multi-unit spots - which is the only reason we are down overall. We're sticking with it and going to keep on pounding the lines and trust in the process.

On the bright side, we went 1-0 in 2 unit wagers last night. Although this was offset by losing a -247 favorite, I'm focused on silver linings 🙂

2023 NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders

This one opened GB -1 and 43.5 and has since flipped to LV -1 and 45.5. Limits are full so I wouldn't expect much movement outside of big news.

While the line switching favorites is significant, it's still very much a pick'em and anyone's game. This should be a close one. I already feel like I'm going to regret writing that because I wrote how excited I was about SNF being such a closely matched set of teams and we all saw how that worked out.

I do have some significant positions on this game. I have GB in a teaser where the first leg won and I also have the Raiders in Circa Millions. I'm strongly considering putting a hedge bet on Las Vegas, to guarantee breaking even on my teaser and even having the nice chance of middling and winning both bets. Still unsure about it and will be actively line shopping tomorrow and looking for a good price to get in on Vegas.

Update:

Aaron Jones now seems unlikely to play and Davante Adams is probable. This dramatically alters the player prop landscape. I'm putting a "HOLD" next to the bets I liked earlier today when I wrote this out which may not be good anymore. IE if Adams is out then the Renfrow under we love suddenly becomes the Renfrow over we love.

This is also a good reminder of why it's important to line shop and verify the market status before making a wager you see here. All this news came out in between writing this report up and it getting published. Just like that, at the drop of a hat what was likely value is no longer good.

I'm keeping up the original write-up but adding new info. The original bets count. I no longer like Adams o6.5 +110 at all, especially for 2u. But it's going to stay in the official record even though this hasn't yet been published just for transparency.

I also went out and bet my hedge I was considering of Vegas -2 at -110 on the news that Aaron Jones is unlikely to play. It's not that I think that he really matters. Few running backs do matter. But I was heavily leaning towards making the hedge already and that little bit of extra helps make the decision.

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