2023 NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

Many of the lines published here will not be accessible to you and if that's the case, don't bet it at a lesser line.

You should also scout out the market before tailing. What was valuable on Friday could be garbage by Sunday. If I like -115 but you see -110 everywhere then clearly the situation has changed and -110 is probably no good despite that I liked it at -115. It's important to note that I'm specifically finding outliers and not pushing bets agreeing with market consensus. The market is efficient and I'm not smart enough in player props to disagree with it.

I'm also not listing where these lines are available to ensure you do your diligence and line shop - which is also necessary for you to succeed as that process will get you to confirm whether or not the value is still there.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 52-37 +4.09u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 14-13 +0.252u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap:

We went 2-2 -.58 units in the official bets and 1-2 -.108 in the degen bets. Even if we continue to be run profitable from here on out, we're still going to have losing nights like this nearly half the time.

It's important to be zen about losses. I'm not saying this to cover my ass or anything. But you see a lot of people throw hissy fits when it happens. The thing is, even if you absolutely crush at this, you're still losing 45% of the time. Losing happens nearly as often as winning so you need to get used to it.

Tonight I had one of the best single days I ever had. It would have been the most profitable day ever had USC kicked in a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation and all my unders would have cashed. Instead game goes to OT and they score 4 more touchdowns along the way.

I'm only mentioning it to say that I'm not mad about this fluke event "costing" me thousands. It's annoying. But if there wasn't this kind of variance involved then sports betting wouldn't exist. So we need to embrace it and understand it comes with the territory. Just gotta be zen about this stuff.

2023 NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Finally, we have what shapes up to be a really good game happening in prime-time!

This one opened at SF -3.5 and 45 and has since stayed exactly in that spot. Limits are full now as well so I don't expect to see any line movement barring big news coming up before kickoff.

While assumptions can easily get you into trouble in this business. This opener appears sharper than typical given that no betting action has since moved it to a new location as you'd typically see. It could also mean that a lot of sharps and syndicates are passing on this one.

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