2023 NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks

by Mike Lott
2023 NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks

The 2023 NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks article highlights the best bets to win, straight up, and then look weeks into the future to help make sure you don't waste a pick as we enter the second quarter of the NFL season!

Last week was pretty clean and the most popular picks all won their games with the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles being selected in over 50% of Yahoo and 43% of ESPN Survivor pools.

Week 5 presents a new twist - the bye weeks! However, all four teams on bye weeks probably weren't going to your first choice anyway - Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It is quite unfortunate that coming into Week 5 we were excited for a freebie with the Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals, but with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Cincinnati offense struggling (mightily!) and now Tee Higgins injury, it is no longer a realistic option. It's amazing how quickly things change in the NFL!

If you have picked with the masses, your first four weeks include a mix of the following teams - Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. That list includes some of the best teams in the NFL that might not be available for you for the rest of the season!

2023 NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks

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Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants

Heading into Monday Night Football, the Miami Dolphins are more than doubling the offensive yardage that the Giants are putting up. Miami tops the NFL averaging 511 yards per game, while the Giants rank 30th, averaging a lackluster 253 yards. If Miami plays their style of run-and-gun game against New York, it's going to be an ugly result.

The Dolphins are 9.5-point home favorites.

A lot of us thought we saw the last of Tua Tagovailoa last year after a handful of nasty concussions. Thankfully we were wrong. Tua is playing the quarterback position better than anyone in the NFL through the first four weeks. He leads the league in passing yards (326.5 per game), while completing 71% of his passes. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack in pass defense but have only recorded two sacks in three games, which could become disastrous against Miami. Tua has only been sacked five times, and four of those came in the loss to the Bills this past weekend. If you give Tua too much time in the pocket, he's going to connect with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle down the field, and those are two guys you are not chasing down to make a tackle. We saw what the 49ers receivers did in open space against the Giants secondary - 215 yards after the catch.

Not only do the Dolphins lead the NFL in passing yards, but they also lead the NFL in rushing yards as well. How in the world is that possible? Well, they did play the Denver Broncos and put up 70 against them, but they're being led by a two-headed monster in Raheem Mostert and rookie De'Von Achane. The amount of speed on this Miami offense is absolutely ridiculous. Mostert is the lead back and is 15th in the league with 249 yards and is tied with Christian McCaffrey with 6 rushing touchdowns. Achane technically has played three games, but in his first game he had just a single carry. In Miami's last two games, Achane has rushed for 304 yards and four touchdowns. The Kid is 6th in the NFL in rushing with just 27 carries on the year!

This is just more bad news for the Giants, as their defense has allowed the 27th most yards per game on the ground, and has given up six scores.

So you tell me, if the Giants have no pass rush, and the Giants can't make tackles, and the Giants can't stop the run, but they're facing the best passing and the best rushing offense in the same game, how do they win this game?

It's simple they don't.

There's no reason to get into the Giants offensive struggles, how the offensive line does not protect Daniel Jones, and how they could be without Saquon Barkley once again.

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers

We get a matchup of two NFC teams, whose franchises are going in complete opposite directions. The Detroit Lions are 3-1, looking like a top 5 NFC team and things are clicking on both sides of the ball. On the other hand, the Carolina Panthers are 0-4, trying to build around a rookie QB who they selected with the #1 overall pick and has struggled mightily through his first three career starts.

The Lions are 9-point home favorites.

The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFL to start the year at stopping the run. They are holding opponents to just 60 yards per game, and only allowing three yards per carry. Why is this relevant? Because the Carolina Panthers have not been able to get their run game going. The best way to help a rookie quarterback is to develop a strong run game. Carolina thought they were doing that by bringing in Miles Sanders, but so far that has not worked out. Sanders has 158 rushing yards in four games, with no carries of 20+ yards, averaging under three yards per rush and has the lone rushing touchdowns for the Panthers. His backup (for now) Chubba Hubbard has had more success with a 4.6 average on the ground.

On the flip side, the Lions are a top 10 rushing team in the NFL, led by David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, while the Panthers are in the bottom seven at stopping the run, allowing 136 yards per game. This is coming off of a week where the Lions just ran for 211 yards and three David Montgomery scores against the Green Bay Packers. Advantage Detroit.

Through the air, the Lions are eighth in the league averaging 250 yards per game. Jared Goff has played arguably the best football of his career and has developed great chemistry with Amon-Ra St. Brown (10th in receiving yards) and rookie tight end Sam Laporta (most receiving yards by a tight end). Goff will also get back wide receiver Jameson Williams this week, as he saw his six-game suspension be reduced to four, allowing him to return to the field this week.

Williams, who was taken in the first round last year, gives Goff and this Lions offense another speedy weapon for defenses to stress about. Last season he dealt with a handful of injuries, but his one catch he did make went for a 41-yard touchdown.

One of the biggest problems for the Panthers has been protecting Bryce Young in the early going. Young has been sacked 11 times in his first three games and has already been forced to miss a game due to injury. You just know Aidan Hutchinson and the rest of that Lions defense are licking their chops as they prepare for this matchup.

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears (TNF)

Let's be honest, if the Washington Commaders beat the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime last week, people would be praising them and wondering if they could win the NFC East. However, Philly got bailed out by a terrible out-of-bounds call that cost Washington the game, so we're singing a different tune today. Despite that, the Commanders played an incredible game, proving they can play with the big boys, and now get to face the 0-4 Chicago Bears who blew a 28-7 4th quarter lead to the then winless Denver Broncos.

The Commanders are 7-point home favorites.

One thing going for the Bears is that they don't rank in the bottom five of the NFL in defense...but they are in the bottom six. In four games, the Bears have proven they have one of the worst pass rushes in the league, recording just two sacks. This is great news for the Commanders, who have allowed Sam Howell to be sacked a league-leading 24 times already, seven more times than the Bears who are second. Howell should have more time in the pocket in this one, which should result in plenty of big plays to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

The Bears offensive line has allowed 17 sacks so far this year, so expect to see Justin Fields running away from Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen all afternoon.

Washington's run game has been okay so far with Brian Robinson leading the way, but this could be his breakout game, especially if the Commanders get out to an early and big lead. The Bears really are just a complete dumpster fire whether you look at their on-field play or their off-the-field issues.

Matchups to Target If You Haven't Already Used Them

  • Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Los Angeles Rams

At A Glance: NFL Weeks 6-8

Next week, if these teams are still an option for you, we present to you a rare Thursday Night option (two weeks in a row) when the Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5),  host the Denver Broncos! Otherwise, the Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) head to Jersey to play the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins (-7) host the Carolina Panthers and the Buffalo Bills (-7) welcome the Giants to upstate New York on Sunday Night Football.

Week 6 Byes - Packers, Steelers

As we enter Week 7,  we have our work cut out for us. Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are the biggest favorites at 7.5 points over the Arizona Cardinals. If you have saved the San Francisco 49ers (-3) up until now, they seem like a pretty safe bet on Monday Night Football in Minnesota against the Vikings.

Week 7 Byes - Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans, Titans

Every team plays in Week 8, a week that brings back some of the best teams in the league (and most popular picks) in favorable matchups.

  • Bills (-9.5) vs Buccaneers (TNF)
  • Cowboys (-7.5) vs Rams
  • Ravens (-6.5) @ Cardinals
  • Dolphins (-4) vs Patriots
  • Chiefs (-4) @ Broncos
  • 49ers (2.5) vs Bengals
  • Chargers (-6.5) vs Bears (SNF)
  • Lions (-5) vs Raiders (MNF)

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