Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 65-51 +4.415u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 15-17 -.163u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
Monday went very nicely. I found a lot of value late and we even went 3-1 in multi-unit wagers 🙂 for a 11-7 night to profit +6.485 units. The degen category was less impressive at 1-1 leading to a -.056 unit loss. As I've said before, I do not expect the degen bets to be profitable by years end. I'm mostly putting them up to show what happens when you start expanding your betting range to suboptimal options. Mind you, every single one of the degen bets are still profitable in theory. They are still "good bets" - that's how difficult it is to consistently beat the market. Good value usually nets a breakeven or tiny loss while "huge value" leads to a small profit because there really isn't any "huge value" because the market is too efficient.
On a personal note, Monday was also great for me as well. My Packers teaser won, as did my Raiders -2 hedge. Furthermore, I had Raider in the Circa Millions and had a good night in DFS, which is all too rare these days, especially since that was my primary source of income until this year when sports betting overtook it.
2023 NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Opened at Chiefs -10.5 and 50 and has since remained at -10.5 but has dropped down to 47.
Limits are maxed out so this should be the closing line barring some last-minute noise.
I have no positions on this game and I don't imagine that'll change.
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