2023 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2023 NFL Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 78-64 +7.505u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 18-20 -.177u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We went 7-7 but still profited by 1.85u simply because we went more to expectation winning our conviction 2u play and losing both .5 unit smaller wagers. So it was really 1-0 in 2u, 6-5 in 1u wagers and 0-2 in .5u wagers. Like I said, we ran really poorly early on in multi-unit wagers I am specifically making those multi-unit wagers because I believe they present a greater edge than the other stuff.

The line never reached +1.5 on my -110 teaser book so I sadly never jammed home the Jags in teasers which was unfortunate. I also had a ton of last-minute plays I only had time to tweet out. The stuff I'm adding in late is mostly things I'm personally betting at pph accounts, so if you don't have access to those then you'll get the most value from reading the early releases only - which focus more on mainstream books as the pphs don't tend to release early. I am not advocating you start betting at pphs, it's a bit of a logistic nightmare of "will I actually get paid?" and I only do it simply because I don't have other options. Thus far I've been slowly paid plenty and told no more action, but never outright stiffed.

But I'm burying the lead here. Last Thursday was perhaps the first time all year we didn't have any degen category wagers since I added the category to accommodate games without much value.  I'm genuinely thinking of putting it in the can and ignoring those from here on out. Please give me feedback on those and let me know if you want me to keep them.

2023 NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles

This looks like a really fun game, super happy to have games like this in the primetime slot.

It opened at PHI -.5 and 49.5.  It's since moved all the way to PHI -2.5 and 51. Limits aren't quite full yet, but a few hours ago the books doubled limits, and not much changed. However, a few books are playing -3 and there's a massive chasm between 2.5 and 3. Wherever this one settles at, barring some freak injury/weather/terrorist attack the line will unlikely cross any other key numbers. There's a tiny chance it'll reach -3.5 but I'd be quite surprised if it did.

Why am I mentioning this? Because if you like Philly or Miami, now is the time to bet it while you can get +3 on Miami at some books and -2.5 PHI at others. I don't know where it'll ultimately land. But one thing is for sure, those lines will converge by kickoff and you don't want to be stuck betting MIA +2.5 or PHI -3 if you don't have to. Real talk though, the best bet is nearly always no bet at all. There's absolutely no reason to "rush in a bet" just because some places have -2.5 and others +3.

I rarely bet into major markets. I'm able to get enough volume focusing on niche offerings that are less likely to be efficiently priced. That's why I was happy to write about props. Beating props is a relatively straightforward process. The real danger in these is getting limited and losing outs too fast. Which paradoxically is also why they are soft. The people I know with really big edges and the bankrolls to fire heavy don't waste time one $200 to $500 max bet props which will likely get their account limited quickly and take away the big plays they really care about. A small fry like me though is happy to hit these and cycle through accounts.

We ended up playing PHI -2.5 in Circa Millions. I will also likely play MIA +8.5 in a couple of teasers tomorrow. However, it was not a priority teaser play of mine and did not pair with either of the two LAC +7.5 teasers I fired up on Thursday.

I want to make a special mention about openers. Sometimes my "opener" isn't what the opening line is at many books. That's because I'm using openers from Bookmarker. Bookmaker will release an initial line. It'll get bet into by sharps, they'll move and adjust it. And then later the rec books will copy their line. So other places will have the open at -2.5 but that's only because they copied and waited for the line to improve. This is why what I write for openers will often be different from what you see when you look at line history at other books.

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