Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 97-82 +8.39u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 22-22 +.009u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
After a sick Thursday going 7-0, we went back to the reality that is the grind last night going 3-5 for -1.8u and losing our only degen bet.
Let's keep it going.
2023 NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions
It's kind of amazing how bad some of the games are that they choose to broadcast in these prime slots each week.
This one opened at Lions -7.5 and 44.5. At points, it drifted up to Lions -8.5 before getting brought back down to -7. Since seven is a key number, the difference between the open and close here is significant despite being only half a point. The limits are wide open, I do not expect any further movement.
I have Lions -2.5 as the 2nd leg of a teaser so I'll obviously be rooting hard for them to win by 3 or more. I had bet that last Monday when it had moved up to -8.5 - hence why it's at a spot that wouldn't make sense if I had teased it today. Would have been better to have timed it at -7.5 but was worried about it going to 9 and losing teasable status and quite frankly, the difference between -2.5 and -1.5 is minimal.
As I write this, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with an illness. But this is a good thing for us. This kind of uncertainty means that numbers are going to be less uniform than usual across books. For example, a bunch of books currently have no props on him. Some are keeping lines up as if he's going to play, others are acting as if he won't. We happen to be leaning towards the not playing/not 100% side of things as we're heavy on DET overs. That doesn't mean he won't be 100% though - but we still like these because the lines wouldn't be unreasonable even if he is 100% good to go.
Having said all of that. The first thing you should do before tailing any of these is to check to injury report. If we have clarity on his health that'll reshape the market and a lot of these bets are probably not bets you'd want to make.
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