Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 87-77 +2.14u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 19-21 -.191u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Going 4-5 for a -1 unit loss to cap off an already losing week was not ideal.
While I am happy we're running in the positive, it's still super frustrating that we aren't doing better. Especially since we're not taking widely available line but rather massive outliers which many people, including myself will not all have access to bet.
Frankly, I'm somewhat surprised to have received exactly 0 pushback on this where nobody has commented or tweeted at me that since they don't live in Iowa they couldn't bet that -105 line I liked.
So either nobody is reading this or the audience really gets it and understands the realities of sports betting bad lines. I'm hoping it's the latter 🙂
On a personal note, last week was a total disaster for me. Bad week for teasers in general and any week that's bad for teasers is going to be a good week for the sports books. On the other hand, I had my first 2x+ week of the year in NFL so things are looking up there (or maybe it's just false hope). The addition of NHL, NBA, & soccer getting fully underway has also been a godsend as well. The doldrums of MLB summer are finally over.
2023 NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
This opened at BUF -6 and 41. The line has since moved dramatically and can be found between 43 to 44 and -9 to -10. The difference between 9 and 10 is somewhat significant. Limits are fully open right now as well so it's quite unusual to not yet have consensus this late in the day for a primetime NFL game.
I have a fairly large position on BUF -1.5 for this game. I teased this one when the line was only -7.5. I don't have any follow-up positions yet, but it's possible I'll try to put in a hedge/middle on TB +10 but seems unlikely.
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