Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 122-94 +17.56u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 27-29 -0.234u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
We went 10-7 for +.6 units last night. It was a disappointing result that despite a 10-7 record ended up with only a slight win overall because some highly juiced faves and our only 2 unit bet lost.
There was a ton of value found close to kickoff. I wasn't able to update the article in time but what I do is quote tweet the article with the late additions. It can be difficult as close to kickoff is when I'm busiest entering contests, tweaking lineups, on the alert for late-breaking news, checking outs for stale lines, etc. This is what sucks about doing this for a living, key moments when the rest of the world is relaxing and enjoying life I'm cycling through tabs and running solvers while my heart races because I have 2 minutes to edit the csv and unsure if I'll get it done in time. Especially since a lot of DFS sites tend to slow down right before lock because they get the most traffic then.
But we're still accumulating the dubs and by this point in the year it'd take a pretty disastrous turn of events to end the season in the negative. I'd probably give fair odds of around -400 that we never dip into the negative from here on out. Having said that, I am by no means going to be "massaging the numbers" and choosing fewer props and in smaller amounts. We're not looking to have a fancy record, what's in the past is in the past. That money has already gone to groceries, and we'll have fresh groceries to buy next week.
2023 NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets
This should actually be a pretty fun one to watch. Jets may not have a great offense, but their defense keeps them in close games.
The line opened at LAC -3 and 40.5 and has since moved to LAC -3.5 and 41. Although the movement in the total has been minimal, any movement off a key number is huge so the market has definitely liked the Chargers side of that opener, giving the Jets wins in the event it's decided by 3, which will happen quite a bit. Limits are maxed right now so we're unlikely to find any movement without any big news announcements.
My personal lean is on the chargers. Chargers have also been massively underperforming. They are way better than their 3-4 record indicates. They've easily been one of the least fortunate teams in the NFL thus far this year in terms of making game-losing blunders at key moments. Watching how much time Herbert has to calmly stand behind his line and find the open man it's pretty amazing they have any losses at all.
With all that said. have Jets +3.5 in Circa Millions. However, if we were to do it again, we would not have picked the Jets. I am on a team, otherwise, I'd be willing to discuss the how or why in more depth.
I may end up betting LAC a little, especially if I can find an off line that still hangs -3.
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