Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 112-87 +16.96u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 23-25 -.291u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
We had yet another very good result last Thursday going 8-1 +6.91 units. The degen bets went 0-2 for -.24 units but as I've said a million times, I don't think anyone should be betting those. They are "value" in theory but it's so slim that it's easily within the margin of error where they could be bad bets and also so thin you may need a tremendously large sample before they normalize and you realize your equity.
Regarding sample sizes. I genuinely wouldn't feel comfortable doing a victory lap right now and saying we've solved NFL props. For one, we're sort of cheating, just finding the best possible lines out there, which means not everyone can bet all of these because some are only available at obscure books only available in a few states. I do however try to focus heavily on bad lines in mainstream markets. Furthermore, if a nationwide book offers -120 and a hard-to-find one offers -115 but I think -120 is also valuable then I list the -120 instead.
But I digress, while I'm solidly confident we have a winning system, our sample is still small enough that it's fully within the realm of possibility that we just ran really hot. It won't be until about 500 wagers that I'll start really trusting the numbers and I won't really feel sure of it until we get to around 2k. But we're never going to get that many in. We're nearly halfway through the season and only have 199 wagers.
So things are going well overall and we've had an absurdly good run recently as well. But don't go crazy in tailing these. For all we know this is still a losing model. Unlikely, but possible. My expertise is in DFS and originating golf h2hs, not calculating NFL prop bet value. Like I said in the first article, this is my first year tackling this. I'm normally too busy with DFS but since DFS getting harder and harder to beat and as you can see I clearly love the sound of my keyboard clicking, here we are.
2023 NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
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Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Finally, we have ourselves a game worthy of prime time. This is a football game I could actually watch with purpose, not have on in the background as I fiddled with my laptop.
This one opened at CIN -1 o46.5 and has since moved to CIN -2.5 and o50.5. I think the total could move a little more but would be shocked if the spread crossed any key numbers from here on out.
Both teams have gone from seemingly elite to having major warts this year. Buffalo has looked exceedingly beatable, they even lost to my hopeless Patriots.
Trust me, nobody was more upset with that win than I was. It killed my Bills teasers as well as took away Michael Penix's draft equity and the worse our draft pick next season the greater likelihood I have of another year of Mac Jones.
I really miss you Tom Brady, I always loved you, but I didn't really understand how much it meant to have a great QB for such a long time and never before experienced the pain of wanting your team to lose just so you can get a good pick to jettison what you got and try again.
I have multiple positions on this game, including CIN -1.5 in our Circa Millions entry. I've also teased BUF +8.5. If Cincy wins by two to eight points I'm going to be a very happy camper tomorrow.
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