Welcome to the 2023 NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets!
The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.
- Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
- Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
- I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.
You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.
Official Record: 104-86 +10.05u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 23-23 -.051u (these all suck so 0.1u each)
Recap
Went 7-4 on Monday for +1.66u. Losing the Davante Adams 2u wager that was -150 was quite painful and made an otherwise big night a low-profit event.
But we're back up over 10 units of profit for the year. Also nice to clear another meaningless but "feel good" hurdle of 100 wins.
Frankly, this is going about expectation landing right in the sweet spot of 55% wins. This is what "making it" looks like in the world of sports betting. You bet 190 times, you win 54.74% of them and you squeeze out a small profit.
This is exactly what the median outcome for a winning system/model looks like. 55%.
2023 NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Yet another absolute trash primetime game. Woof
This one opened at Pit -3 and drifted all the way to -2 before winding up right back where it started at -3. The total however has moved quite a bit from an opener of 34 to the current 37 - which is a pretty big move.
Limits are fully opened up right now so I wouldn't expect much more movement going forward.
I have zero positions on this game.
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