The PGA Tour heads to the Lone Star State for the final event before the second major of the season. That brings me to my 2023 PGA DFS: AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings Preview.
Last week my plays from the Wells Fargo included eventual winner Wyndham Clark at $7,800. The second consecutive week that one of my ten plays from this DFS Preview included the eventual winner.
From my plays this week 4 guys at $7800 in cost, or less made the cut. Wyndham Clark $7800 -8 is tied for the lead, Kirk $7500 -4 is T20, Svennson $6900 -7 T4, and Tosti $6500 -1 T55. Be sure to follow my account and @fantasysixpack for all my #DraftKings plays and #GolfBets https://t.co/NxTs1uzdeQ pic.twitter.com/OmsdSKy1ZO
— Keith Flemming (@KeithFlemming) May 6, 2023
This week's event the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch is a tough event to predict. There are plenty of top players in the field for a non-elevated event this week. However, it is fair to question if they are there with the goal of winning on their mind? They could be at this event to make sure their game is sharp for the PGA Championship next week at Oak Hill.
You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming to keep the conversation going!
2023 PGA DFS: AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings Preview
Typically the top players in the world skip a tournament held the week before a Major championship. This year's Byron Nelson attracted a stronger field than you would expect. Originally both Texas natives Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler were in the field this week. Spieth withdrew yesterday and in doing so made the field much weaker than it was at the beginning of the week. Scottie Scheffler's odds to win immediately fell to +350 with Spieth's withdrawal.
KH Lee is the two defending champion back to defend his crown at TPC Craig Ranch. His 2023 season has been far from stellar and he is trying to become only the sixteenth player in tour history to win the same event in three consecutive seasons (Woods has accomplished this six times). Lee's strong showing at the Wells Fargo last week will be enough to make him a popular play yet again this week.
Venue (TPC Craig Ranch)
TPC Craig Ranch is a fairly basic layout with many of the same features you see at other TPC courses on Tour. The first two years the Byron Nelson has been held here have been birdie fests. This course is mostly about driving it far and putting well.
The course plays as a 7,468-yard Par 72 with wide fairways that offer more forgiveness than most PGA events. Players who don't hit it a long way off the tee can compete here as well. Players like Matt Kuchar, Troy Merritt, and Satoshi Kodaira have been in contention on Sunday at TPC Craig Ranch,
Only six players have finished inside the top 25 in the first two AT&T Byron Nelson events held here. The list is KH Lee, Jordan Spieth, Scott Stallings, Matt Kuchar, Seamus Power, and Vincent Whatley.
This week I will be targeting players who hit it far off the tee, are great second-shot players, and are elite putters.
TPC Craig Ranch - Course History for the #ATTByronNelson - aka "K.H. Lee Open"
Includes finish position and Strokes Gained per round from the two events here in 2021 and 2022.
*Past Winners/Odds
2022 - K.H. Lee (-26) +10000
2021 - K.H. Lee (-25) +15000Also, great to see… pic.twitter.com/GDImkNVQNC
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) May 8, 2023
Comp Courses
- Coco Beach
- PGA West(Nicklaus and La Quinta)
- Plantation Course at Kapalua
- TPC Scottsdale
Keys Stats
- Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent)
- Driving Distance
- Proximity 175+
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Course and Comp Course History
My 2023 PGA DFS: AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings Lineup
KH Lee ($9,300)
KH Lee's numbers before winning the Byron Nelson the past 2 years 2021 -> 2022 pic.twitter.com/JyD7y9w6gd
— Golf Gambling Podcast (@GolfGamblingPod) May 8, 2023
Lee has not been solid this season, but as you can see from the graphic above he wasn't in great form leading into the last two AT&T Byron Nelson events. I couldn't resist playing someone who is -51 in his last two appearances at TPC Craig Ranch. I think he's slightly undervalued at an event where he's found so much success with his current price on DraftKings.
Another option in this price range: Jason Day ($9,400)
Matt Kuchar ($9,000)
Pure class from Matt Kuchar 👏 pic.twitter.com/No9ylyzSU5
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 7, 2023
Matt Kuchar is one of the six players who have finished inside the top 25 in each of the two Byron Nelson events held at TPC Craig Ranch. Kuchar is in great form with two top 10s and three top 20s in his last six events. Kuchar is one of the safer plays in the field this week to make the cut.
Another option in this price range: Adam Scott ($9,200)
Seamus Power ($8,900)
Back-to-back holes in one! Seamus Power taps into Irish luck at the Par 3 Contest. #themasters pic.twitter.com/dfO5T7yOsJ
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 5, 2023
Seamus Power is another one of the six players in this event with multiple top 25s in the two years this event has been held at TPC Craig Ranch. He hits it long off the tee and is used to the potential windy conditions hailing from Ireland. He's in the top ten in the field in two key stats I was looking at for this event in Comp Course History and Birdie or Better on easy courses.
Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)
PGATOUR: Stephan Jaeger drops it in close 🎯 pic.twitter.com/K7DRmCtYkv
— GolfNewsGo (@GolfNewsGo) April 30, 2023
Stephan Jaeger has been in a lot of my DraftKings lineups this year for good reason. He's made the cut in nine of his eleven events in 2023. For a guy in this price range that is a great ratio. He's finished in the top 30 in four of his last six events. I plan to have him as one of my plays to win on this week's Two off the Tee show on Fantasy Six Pack's YouTube channel at 50-1.
Another option in this price range: Brandon Wu ($7,800)
Eric Cole ($7,400)
In 2019, Eric Cole had no status and was giving golf lessons at Abacoa GC, six miles away from PGA National.
Tomorrow, he'll compete in the final group on TOUR for the first time, chasing his first title. pic.twitter.com/kSHnUmBNgF
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 26, 2023
Eric Cole's story proves what determination, hard work, and not giving up on yourself can accomplish. The reason I love him for this event and have him in my DK lineup this week is simple. He is one of four players in the field in the top 30 in irons, putting, and birdies. The other three names on that list are top players in the field Scottie Scheffler, Tyrell Hatton, and Jason Day.
Nate Lashley ($7,200)
Big mover of the day, Nate Lashley!
Birdies the par 3 6th and just birdied the 8th to get to -4 with one hole to play. Only 2 strokes out of the lead.
Lashley opened at +50000 and is all the way down to +12500 to win on @PointsBetUSA pic.twitter.com/weCH4jtXag
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) May 4, 2023
Lashley is my favorite long shot to win this event at 100-1 odds. He hits it a mile, makes plenty of birdies, and has three straight top-30 finishes in the last month. If he can improve on his Sunday scores I believe he will be in contention late Sunday afternoon.
Another option in this price range: Ben Griffin ($7,500)
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Be sure to check out the rest of our golf content, including my show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.
