2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

by Keith Flemming
2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

The PGA Tour has only two events left before crowning the 2023 FedEx Cup champion. That brings me to my 2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview.

Lucas Glover won his second consecutive event in Memphis last week to start the FedEx Cup Playoffs. If you follow me on Twitter, or listened to my guest appearance on Clubhouse Picks, you know I loved Glover at 75-1.

You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming to keep the conversation going! Be sure to listen to my weekly guest appearance Wednesdays at 1 pm Eastern on The Inside Drive on ESPN Northwest Radio. 

I understood why many, including myself were off Glover for the regular season finale two weeks ago. However, I didn’t understand why people were fading Glover last week.

I was honestly shocked to see Glover at 75-1 to win in a limited field event. He was 75-1 despite two wins in his last four starts and rounds in the sixties in seventeen of his last eighteen rounds played.

 

2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

Venue (Olympia Fields Country Club)

The second leg of the FedEx Cup takes place at Olympia Fields Country Club. There is very little data on this venue due to the PGA Tour having one event there in the last two decades. This venue has hosted a pair of US Opens and PGA Championships throughout its rich history. This venue gives the feel and difficulty you normally see in major championships.

This week the golf gambling gods gave us one final "take your shot" event. This week you can take chances on your betting card and DraftKings lineups due to limited data and a limited field. I leaned into players who had success at this venue in 2020. I paired those results with players who score well on par-4s, scramble around the greens, and play difficult venues well.

The Par-70 course features your normal par-70 setup on tour with two par-5s, four par-3s, and 12 par-4s. The course plays 7,366 yards and features Bentgrass throughout the course. Olympia features very penal rough at 4 inches long and the greens will be firm and fast.

In the 2020 event players who found success excelled in Total Driving, Scrambling, and Bogey Avoidance. There are eight par-4s that play 450+ yards at Olympia Fields Country Club and none of them played under par in the 2020 event. In that event, only five players finished the tournament under par overall.

Course Comps

I didn't use any comp courses this week. Instead, I looked at the results from 2020 at this venue and the key stats led to success that year.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Total Driving
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par-4 Scoring 450+ yards
  • Proximity 125-175 yards (over 30% of the approaches in 2020 came from this distance)
  • Strokes Gained Putting (Bentgrass)

My 2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Lineup

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400)

Hideki kicked his game into gear last weekend to advance to the BMW Championship. He played the last six holes at -5 to move to the 47th spot in the FedEx Playoffs. Matsuyama is vying for his tenth consecutive trip to East Lake and the PGA Tour's final event of the season.

Hideki is one of the five players in the field who finished under par in the event here in 2020. On the year he has 11 top-25 finishes, he’s top-10 in the field in difficult scoring conditions and strokes gained approach.

Matsuyama is one of nine players in the field who is above average in strokes gained off the tee, par-4 scoring on holes 450 yards or more, strokes gained around the greens, and strokes gained approach. Over his last three events, he’s gained 7.6 strokes tee to green and 7.3 on approach.

Hideki is in better form entering the 2023 BMW at Olympia Fields than he was in 2020. He finished T3 that year and typically thrives on courses that deemphasize putting.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000)

Hatton finished T-16 at the BMW Championship held at Olympia Fields in 2020. He's one of the nine players in the field above average in strokes gained tee to green and around the greens, bogey avoidance, and par-4 scoring on holes 450 plus yards.

He fits the bill for the kind of player I am targeting this week by being 9th in par-4 scoring and 18th in scrambling on tour this year. Hatton has gained strokes tee to green and off the tee in every event since the 2022 BMW Championship. (17 straight events)

Hatton is someone who plays difficult courses well. He has top-5 finishes at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, and Quail Hollow this season. He started poorly last week with a round of two over 72 but finished the tournament with three straight rounds in the sixties.

Russell Henley ($8,200)

I feel very similar about Henley this week as I did for the Wyndham Championship. He's a very safe play that I expect to do well in this event, but I don't feel great about his chances to win. That doesn't mean I'm against putting a few dollars on him at 30-1 to win this week.

Henley is number one on tour in driving accuracy. Russell will gain an advantage if he hits fairways and avoids the gnarly rough at Olympia Fields. He's also top-10 in the field in strokes gained approach and tee to green.

Henley finished T25 at Olympia Fields in 2020 at this event and typically plays difficult golf courses well. He has top-20 finishes this season at Augusta, LA Country Club, and Muirfield Village. I want golfers who play difficult courses in my lineup this week.

Brian Harman ($8,100)

Brian Harman finished 31st last week at Memphis last week in his first event since his Open Championship win 4 weeks prior. I like the fact that he played great over the weekend with three rounds of 68 or better to finish the tournament.

Harman is tailor-made for this venue and that's a big reason he finished T12 at Olympia in 2020. Harman hits it straight off the tee and consistently hits greens in regulation. He is near 70% in both of those statistics.

Olympia Fields has 12 par-4s and they all played over par in the 2020 event. The fact Harman is number one on tour this season in scrambling could play a huge factor this week.

Harman is top-10 in driving accuracy and par-4 scoring this season. He is still in great form, playing a difficult golf course, that should put huge emphasis on driving the ball well and scrambling when you miss greens in regulation. This feels in many ways similar to the week before The Open Championship.

Cam Davis ($7,800)

I expect Cam Davis to be high-owned this week. He is coming off three consecutive top-10 finishes, he's shot 67 or better in eight of his last twelve rounds, 69 or better in eleven of the last twelve.

At Olympia Fields in 2020 gaining strokes off the tee and around the greens was vital to the player who finished inside the top 10 for the week. Cam Davis excels in both categories as he is top-15 in both over the last two weeks.

Cam's strokes gained numbers are across the board similar to Lucas Glover before his back-to-back wins. He is gaining over 2 strokes per event in every major strokes gained category except for putting. This week the greens are Bentgrass and that is the surface Davis putts the best on by a significant margin.

Davis has top-10 finishes this season at other difficult venues including TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, and Oak Hill. Over Cam Davis's last five events in the United States, his worst finish is 33rd, with four top-20s and three top-10s.

Byeong Hun An ($7,500)

Byeong Hun An has quietly finished inside the top-25 in six of his last ten events. This includes two top-3 finishes in his last four starts.

An finished T-12 at Olympia Fields in 2020. He plays difficult courses well with top-35 finishes at TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, and Muirfield Village.

He is 10th in the field in total driving and 7th on tour in scrambling. It is going to be vital to drive the ball well and scramble around the greens to succeed here this week.

What I am most encouraged about An is his recent putting success. He's gained strokes on the field in three of his last five starts. An is a player who for his career loses an average of .5-1.0 strokes on the greens per event. Over the last few weeks, Lucas Glover reminded us what can happen when a superior ball-striker starts putting well.

With only 6 plays this week for DraftKings in this article. I wanted to list some stats I believe will lead to success at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Top-10 in proximity from 125-175 yards (30% of approaches were from this distance in 2020)

  1. Jordan Spieth
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Viktor Hovland
  4. Sepp Straka
  5. Collin Morikawa
  6. Max Homa
  7. Justin Rose
  8. Scottie Scheffler
  9. Tom Hoge
  10. Lucas Glover

Top-10 in Total Driving (Driving Distance + Driving Accuracy)

  1. Patrick Cantlay
  2. Scottie Scheffler
  3. Tommy Fleetwood
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Rory McIlroy
  6. Lucas Glover
  7. Si Woo Kim
  8. Sepp Straka
  9. Byeong Hun An
  10. Corey Conners

The nine players in the field who are above average in strokes gained off the tee, around the greens, bogey avoidance, and Par-4 scoring on holes 450+ yards

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Patrick Cantlay
  3. Viktor Hovland
  4. Tyrrell Hatton
  5. Rory McIlroy
  6. Tommy Fleetwood
  7.  Jordan Spieth
  8. Max Homa
  9. Hideki Matsuyama

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Now that you have read the 2023 PGA DFS: BMW Championship DraftKings Preview, be sure to check out the rest of our golf content, including my show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays. 

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